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Bundesliga 26/27 — Round 3 of 34

Updated at

Probability of winning the championship
#Team%
1SC Freiburg logoSC Freiburg#1Win: 16.3%UCL: 47.7%UEL: 7.5%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 0.7%
16.3%
2Dortmund logoDortmund#2Win: 15.4%UCL: 46.2%UEL: 7.7%ECL: 6.8%Releg: 0.7%
15.4%
3FC Augsburg logoFC Augsburg#3Win: 10.1%UCL: 35.6%UEL: 7.4%ECL: 6.9%Releg: 1.5%
10.1%
4Bayern München logoBayern München#4Win: 9.4%UCL: 34.3%UEL: 7.5%ECL: 7.0%Releg: 1.5%
9.4%
5RB Leipzig logoRB Leipzig#5Win: 7.7%UCL: 30.4%UEL: 7.0%ECL: 6.8%Releg: 2.1%
7.7%
6Elversberg logoElversberg#6Win: 7.0%UCL: 28.7%UEL: 6.9%ECL: 6.4%Releg: 2.2%
7.0%
7Leverkusen logoLeverkusen#7Win: 4.1%UCL: 19.9%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 4.3%
4.1%
8FSV Mainz logoFSV Mainz#8Win: 4.1%UCL: 19.9%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 4.3%
4.1%
9Frankfurt logoFrankfurt#9Win: 3.9%UCL: 19.4%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 4.3%
3.9%
10Werder Bremen logoWerder Bremen#10Win: 3.8%UCL: 18.9%UEL: 5.6%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 4.5%
3.8%
11FC Köln logoFC Köln#12Win: 3.8%UCL: 18.2%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 4.7%
3.8%
12Schalke 04 logoSchalke 04#11Win: 3.7%UCL: 18.5%UEL: 5.6%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 4.7%
3.7%
13Hoffenheim logoHoffenheim#13Win: 2.9%UCL: 15.3%UEL: 5.0%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 5.9%
2.9%
14VfB Stuttgart logoVfB Stuttgart#14Win: 2.8%UCL: 15.0%UEL: 4.8%ECL: 5.0%Releg: 6.3%
2.8%
15Paderborn logoPaderborn#15Win: 1.5%UCL: 9.1%UEL: 3.5%ECL: 4.0%Releg: 11.0%
1.5%
16Union Berlin logoUnion Berlin#16Win: 1.5%UCL: 9.1%UEL: 3.5%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 11.1%
1.5%
17Gladbach logoGladbach#17Win: 1.0%UCL: 7.0%UEL: 2.8%ECL: 3.1%Releg: 15.0%
1.0%
18Hamburger SV logoHamburger SV#18Win: 1.0%UCL: 6.9%UEL: 2.6%ECL: 3.2%Releg: 15.3%
1.0%

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Bayern München#4Winner: 9.4%Champions League: 34.3%Europa League: 7.5%Conference League: 7.0%Relegation: 1.5%6:30 PMUnion Berlin#16Winner: 1.5%Champions League: 9.1%Europa League: 3.5%Conference League: 3.8%Relegation: 11.1%
97%
1%
Werder Bremen#10Winner: 3.8%Champions League: 18.9%Europa League: 5.6%Conference League: 5.8%Relegation: 4.5%1:30 PMFC Augsburg#3Winner: 10.1%Champions League: 35.6%Europa League: 7.4%Conference League: 6.9%Relegation: 1.5%
20%
60%
Gladbach#17Winner: 1.0%Champions League: 7.0%Europa League: 2.8%Conference League: 3.1%Relegation: 15.0%1:30 PMFSV Mainz#8Winner: 4.1%Champions League: 19.9%Europa League: 5.7%Conference League: 5.9%Relegation: 4.3%
10%
76%
Frankfurt#9Winner: 3.9%Champions League: 19.4%Europa League: 5.8%Conference League: 5.8%Relegation: 4.3%1:30 PMSC Freiburg#1Winner: 16.3%Champions League: 47.7%Europa League: 7.5%Conference League: 6.7%Relegation: 0.7%
18%
63%
Hamburger SV#18Winner: 1.0%Champions League: 6.9%Europa League: 2.6%Conference League: 3.2%Relegation: 15.3%1:30 PMFC Köln#12Winner: 3.8%Champions League: 18.2%Europa League: 5.5%Conference League: 5.8%Relegation: 4.7%
68%
16%
VfB Stuttgart#14Winner: 2.8%Champions League: 15.0%Europa League: 4.8%Conference League: 5.0%Relegation: 6.3%4:30 PMDortmund#2Winner: 15.4%Champions League: 46.2%Europa League: 7.7%Conference League: 6.8%Relegation: 0.7%
46%
31%
Leverkusen#7Winner: 4.1%Champions League: 19.9%Europa League: 5.7%Conference League: 6.0%Relegation: 4.3%1:30 PMRB Leipzig#5Winner: 7.7%Champions League: 30.4%Europa League: 7.0%Conference League: 6.8%Relegation: 2.1%
87%
4%
Schalke 04#11Winner: 3.7%Champions League: 18.5%Europa League: 5.6%Conference League: 5.8%Relegation: 4.7%3:30 PMElversberg#6Winner: 7.0%Champions League: 28.7%Europa League: 6.9%Conference League: 6.4%Relegation: 2.2%
81%
7%
Paderborn#15Winner: 1.5%Champions League: 9.1%Europa League: 3.5%Conference League: 4.0%Relegation: 11.0%5:30 PMHoffenheim#13Winner: 2.9%Champions League: 15.3%Europa League: 5.0%Conference League: 5.3%Relegation: 5.9%
66%
15%
Paderborn#15Winner: 1.5%Champions League: 9.1%Europa League: 3.5%Conference League: 4.0%Relegation: 11.0%5:00 PMVfB Stuttgart#14Winner: 2.8%Champions League: 15.0%Europa League: 4.8%Conference League: 5.0%Relegation: 6.3%
66%
15%

After Round 3: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?

  • Dortmund's UCL probability dropped from 78.6% to 46.2% (-32.4%).
  • Hamburger SV's Releg probability dropped from 32% to 15.3% (-16.7%).
  • FSV Mainz's UCL probability climbed from 6.2% to 19.9% (+13.7%).
  • Leverkusen's UCL probability dropped from 33% to 19.9% (-13.1%).
  • Frankfurt's UCL probability climbed from 8.9% to 19.4% (+10.5%).

Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation

Bundesliga 26/27 — Season Outlook

Bundesliga 26/27Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win the Bundesliga 26/27?
Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, SC Freiburg currently have the highest title probability at 16%. With 31 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Bundesliga 26/27?
Hamburger SV currently faces the highest relegation risk at 15%, followed by Gladbach at 15%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
How does CupChances calculate Bundesliga 26/27 probabilities?
Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
How often are the Bundesliga 26/27 predictions updated?
Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.

Past editions