Bundesliga 26/27 — Round 4 of 34
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21.1% | |
| 2 | 14.3% | |
| 3 | 14.0% | |
| 4 | 6.1% | |
| 5 | 6.0% | |
| 6 | 6.0% | |
| 7 | 5.8% | |
| 8 | 5.5% | |
| 9 | 4.5% | |
| 10 | 3.1% | |
| 11 | 3.0% | |
| 12 | 2.2% | |
| 13 | 2.2% | |
| 14 | 1.6% | |
| 15 | 1.6% | |
| 16 | 1.6% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0.5% |
Probability of qualifying for the Champions League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56.0% | |
| 2 | 44.9% | |
| 3 | 44.6% | |
| 4 | 27.1% | |
| 5 | 26.9% | |
| 6 | 26.5% | |
| 7 | 25.9% | |
| 8 | 25.5% | |
| 9 | 21.7% | |
| 10 | 16.9% | |
| 11 | 16.7% | |
| 12 | 13.3% | |
| 13 | 13.1% | |
| 14 | 10.4% | |
| 15 | 10.2% | |
| 16 | 10.0% | |
| 17 | 5.9% | |
| 18 | 4.5% |
Probability of qualifying for the Europa League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7.9% | |
| 2 | 7.8% | |
| 3 | 7.7% | |
| 4 | 6.9% | |
| 5 | 6.9% | |
| 6 | 6.9% | |
| 7 | 6.8% | |
| 8 | 6.8% | |
| 9 | 6.2% | |
| 10 | 5.5% | |
| 11 | 5.4% | |
| 12 | 4.6% | |
| 13 | 4.5% | |
| 14 | 3.9% | |
| 15 | 3.8% | |
| 16 | 3.8% | |
| 17 | 2.5% | |
| 18 | 2.1% |
Probability of qualifying for the Conference League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7.1% | |
| 2 | 6.9% | |
| 3 | 6.9% | |
| 4 | 6.8% | |
| 5 | 6.8% | |
| 6 | 6.7% | |
| 7 | 6.7% | |
| 8 | 6.5% | |
| 9 | 6.3% | |
| 10 | 5.7% | |
| 11 | 5.6% | |
| 12 | 5.0% | |
| 13 | 4.9% | |
| 14 | 4.3% | |
| 15 | 4.2% | |
| 16 | 4.2% | |
| 17 | 2.9% | |
| 18 | 2.4% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19.1% | |
| 2 | 16.0% | |
| 3 | 9.5% | |
| 4 | 8.8% | |
| 5 | 8.4% | |
| 6 | 6.5% | |
| 7 | 6.2% | |
| 8 | 4.7% | |
| 9 | 4.6% | |
| 10 | 3.2% | |
| 11 | 2.4% | |
| 12 | 2.3% | |
| 13 | 2.3% | |
| 14 | 2.2% | |
| 15 | 2.2% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0.3% |
Round 4 of 34
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | ECL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑1 | 4 | 12 | 21% | 56% | 8% | 7% | 0% | |
2↑2 | 4 | 10 | 14% | 45% | 8% | 7% | 1% | |
3↓2 | 4 | 10 | 14% | 45% | 8% | 7% | 1% | |
4↓1 | 4 | 7 | 6% | 27% | 7% | 7% | 2% | |
5↑2 | 4 | 7 | 6% | 27% | 7% | 7% | 2% | |
6↑2 | 4 | 7 | 6% | 27% | 7% | 7% | 2% | |
7↓1 | 4 | 7 | 6% | 26% | 7% | 7% | 2% | |
8↑2 | 4 | 7 | 6% | 26% | 7% | 7% | 2% | |
9↓4 | 4 | 6 | 5% | 22% | 6% | 6% | 3% | |
10↓1 | 4 | 5 | 3% | 17% | 6% | 6% | 5% | |
11 | 4 | 5 | 3% | 17% | 5% | 6% | 5% | |
12↑3 | 4 | 4 | 2% | 13% | 5% | 5% | 6% | |
13↓1 | 4 | 4 | 2% | 13% | 5% | 5% | 7% | |
14↓1 | 4 | 3 | 2% | 10% | 4% | 4% | 8% | |
15↓1 | 4 | 3 | 2% | 10% | 4% | 4% | 9% | |
16↑2 | 4 | 3 | 2% | 10% | 4% | 4% | 10% | |
17↓1 | 4 | 1 | 1% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 16% | |
18↓1 | 4 | 0 | 1% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 19% |
WinUCLUELECLReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
SC Freiburg#3Winner: 14.0%Champions League: 44.6%Europa League: 7.9%Conference League: 7.1%Relegation: 0.7%
5:00 PM
Schalke 04#11Winner: 3.0%Champions League: 16.7%Europa League: 5.4%Conference League: 5.6%Relegation: 4.7%
35%
43%
Dortmund#1Winner: 21.1%Champions League: 56.0%Europa League: 7.7%Conference League: 6.5%Relegation: 0.3%
5:00 PM
Werder Bremen#8Winner: 5.5%Champions League: 25.5%Europa League: 6.8%Conference League: 6.7%Relegation: 2.4%
97%
1%
FSV Mainz#6Winner: 6.0%Champions League: 26.5%Europa League: 6.9%Conference League: 6.8%Relegation: 2.2%
5:00 PM
Leverkusen#5Winner: 6.0%Champions League: 26.9%Europa League: 6.9%Conference League: 6.8%Relegation: 2.3%
30%
46%
FC Augsburg#4Winner: 6.1%Champions League: 27.1%Europa League: 6.9%Conference League: 6.9%Relegation: 2.2%
5:00 PM
Bayern München#2Winner: 14.3%Champions League: 44.9%Europa League: 7.8%Conference League: 6.9%Relegation: 0.7%
68%
14%
Hoffenheim#14Winner: 1.6%Champions League: 10.4%Europa League: 3.9%Conference League: 4.3%Relegation: 8.4%
5:00 PM
Hamburger SV#16Winner: 1.6%Champions League: 10.0%Europa League: 3.8%Conference League: 4.2%Relegation: 9.5%
83%
6%
RB Leipzig#9Winner: 4.5%Champions League: 21.7%Europa League: 6.2%Conference League: 6.3%Relegation: 3.2%
5:00 PM
Frankfurt#10Winner: 3.1%Champions League: 16.9%Europa League: 5.5%Conference League: 5.7%Relegation: 4.6%
39%
37%
FC Köln#13Winner: 2.2%Champions League: 13.1%Europa League: 4.5%Conference League: 4.9%Relegation: 6.5%
5:00 PM
Gladbach#18Winner: 0.5%Champions League: 4.5%Europa League: 2.1%Conference League: 2.4%Relegation: 19.1%
72%
11%
Union Berlin#17Winner: 0.8%Champions League: 5.9%Europa League: 2.5%Conference League: 2.9%Relegation: 16.0%
5:00 PM
Elversberg#7Winner: 5.8%Champions League: 25.9%Europa League: 6.8%Conference League: 6.7%Relegation: 2.3%
32%
45%
Paderborn#12Winner: 2.2%Champions League: 13.3%Europa League: 4.6%Conference League: 5.0%Relegation: 6.2%
5:00 PM
VfB Stuttgart#15Winner: 1.6%Champions League: 10.2%Europa League: 3.8%Conference League: 4.2%Relegation: 8.8%
80%
7%
Elversberg#7Winner: 5.8%Champions League: 25.9%Europa League: 6.8%Conference League: 6.7%Relegation: 2.3%
5:00 PM
FC Augsburg#4Winner: 6.1%Champions League: 27.1%Europa League: 6.9%Conference League: 6.9%Relegation: 2.2%
65%
16%
After Round 4: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Dortmund's UCL probability dropped from 85.3% to 56% (-29.3%).
- ↑FSV Mainz's UCL probability climbed from 7.6% to 26.5% (+18.9%).
- ↑Elversberg's UCL probability climbed from 7.6% to 25.9% (+18.3%).
- ↓Bayern München's UCL probability dropped from 62.2% to 44.9% (-17.3%).
- ↓Gladbach's Releg probability dropped from 32.8% to 19.1% (-13.7%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Bundesliga 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
UCL:
UEL:
ECL:
Bundesliga 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Bundesliga 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Dortmund currently have the highest title probability at 21%. With 30 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Bundesliga 26/27?
- Gladbach currently faces the highest relegation risk at 19%, followed by Union Berlin at 16%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Bundesliga 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Bundesliga 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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