Skip to main content

Bundesliga 26/27 — Round 4 of 34

Updated at

Probability of winning the championship
#Team%
1Dortmund logoDortmund#1Win: 21.1%UCL: 56.0%UEL: 7.7%ECL: 6.5%Releg: 0.3%
21.1%
2Bayern München logoBayern München#2Win: 14.3%UCL: 44.9%UEL: 7.8%ECL: 6.9%Releg: 0.7%
14.3%
3SC Freiburg logoSC Freiburg#3Win: 14.0%UCL: 44.6%UEL: 7.9%ECL: 7.1%Releg: 0.7%
14.0%
4FC Augsburg logoFC Augsburg#4Win: 6.1%UCL: 27.1%UEL: 6.9%ECL: 6.9%Releg: 2.2%
6.1%
5Leverkusen logoLeverkusen#5Win: 6.0%UCL: 26.9%UEL: 6.9%ECL: 6.8%Releg: 2.3%
6.0%
6FSV Mainz logoFSV Mainz#6Win: 6.0%UCL: 26.5%UEL: 6.9%ECL: 6.8%Releg: 2.2%
6.0%
7Elversberg logoElversberg#7Win: 5.8%UCL: 25.9%UEL: 6.8%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 2.3%
5.8%
8Werder Bremen logoWerder Bremen#8Win: 5.5%UCL: 25.5%UEL: 6.8%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 2.4%
5.5%
9RB Leipzig logoRB Leipzig#9Win: 4.5%UCL: 21.7%UEL: 6.2%ECL: 6.3%Releg: 3.2%
4.5%
10Frankfurt logoFrankfurt#10Win: 3.1%UCL: 16.9%UEL: 5.5%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 4.6%
3.1%
11Schalke 04 logoSchalke 04#11Win: 3.0%UCL: 16.7%UEL: 5.4%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 4.7%
3.0%
12Paderborn logoPaderborn#12Win: 2.2%UCL: 13.3%UEL: 4.6%ECL: 5.0%Releg: 6.2%
2.2%
13FC Köln logoFC Köln#13Win: 2.2%UCL: 13.1%UEL: 4.5%ECL: 4.9%Releg: 6.5%
2.2%
14Hoffenheim logoHoffenheim#14Win: 1.6%UCL: 10.4%UEL: 3.9%ECL: 4.3%Releg: 8.4%
1.6%
15VfB Stuttgart logoVfB Stuttgart#15Win: 1.6%UCL: 10.2%UEL: 3.8%ECL: 4.2%Releg: 8.8%
1.6%
16Hamburger SV logoHamburger SV#16Win: 1.6%UCL: 10.0%UEL: 3.8%ECL: 4.2%Releg: 9.5%
1.6%
17Union Berlin logoUnion Berlin#17Win: 0.8%UCL: 5.9%UEL: 2.5%ECL: 2.9%Releg: 16.0%
0.8%
18Gladbach logoGladbach#18Win: 0.5%UCL: 4.5%UEL: 2.1%ECL: 2.4%Releg: 19.1%
0.5%

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

SC Freiburg#3Winner: 14.0%Champions League: 44.6%Europa League: 7.9%Conference League: 7.1%Relegation: 0.7%5:00 PMSchalke 04#11Winner: 3.0%Champions League: 16.7%Europa League: 5.4%Conference League: 5.6%Relegation: 4.7%
35%
43%
Dortmund#1Winner: 21.1%Champions League: 56.0%Europa League: 7.7%Conference League: 6.5%Relegation: 0.3%5:00 PMWerder Bremen#8Winner: 5.5%Champions League: 25.5%Europa League: 6.8%Conference League: 6.7%Relegation: 2.4%
97%
1%
FSV Mainz#6Winner: 6.0%Champions League: 26.5%Europa League: 6.9%Conference League: 6.8%Relegation: 2.2%5:00 PMLeverkusen#5Winner: 6.0%Champions League: 26.9%Europa League: 6.9%Conference League: 6.8%Relegation: 2.3%
30%
46%
FC Augsburg#4Winner: 6.1%Champions League: 27.1%Europa League: 6.9%Conference League: 6.9%Relegation: 2.2%5:00 PMBayern München#2Winner: 14.3%Champions League: 44.9%Europa League: 7.8%Conference League: 6.9%Relegation: 0.7%
68%
14%
Hoffenheim#14Winner: 1.6%Champions League: 10.4%Europa League: 3.9%Conference League: 4.3%Relegation: 8.4%5:00 PMHamburger SV#16Winner: 1.6%Champions League: 10.0%Europa League: 3.8%Conference League: 4.2%Relegation: 9.5%
83%
6%
RB Leipzig#9Winner: 4.5%Champions League: 21.7%Europa League: 6.2%Conference League: 6.3%Relegation: 3.2%5:00 PMFrankfurt#10Winner: 3.1%Champions League: 16.9%Europa League: 5.5%Conference League: 5.7%Relegation: 4.6%
39%
37%
FC Köln#13Winner: 2.2%Champions League: 13.1%Europa League: 4.5%Conference League: 4.9%Relegation: 6.5%5:00 PMGladbach#18Winner: 0.5%Champions League: 4.5%Europa League: 2.1%Conference League: 2.4%Relegation: 19.1%
72%
11%
Union Berlin#17Winner: 0.8%Champions League: 5.9%Europa League: 2.5%Conference League: 2.9%Relegation: 16.0%5:00 PMElversberg#7Winner: 5.8%Champions League: 25.9%Europa League: 6.8%Conference League: 6.7%Relegation: 2.3%
32%
45%
Paderborn#12Winner: 2.2%Champions League: 13.3%Europa League: 4.6%Conference League: 5.0%Relegation: 6.2%5:00 PMVfB Stuttgart#15Winner: 1.6%Champions League: 10.2%Europa League: 3.8%Conference League: 4.2%Relegation: 8.8%
80%
7%
Elversberg#7Winner: 5.8%Champions League: 25.9%Europa League: 6.8%Conference League: 6.7%Relegation: 2.3%5:00 PMFC Augsburg#4Winner: 6.1%Champions League: 27.1%Europa League: 6.9%Conference League: 6.9%Relegation: 2.2%
65%
16%

After Round 4: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?

  • Dortmund's UCL probability dropped from 85.3% to 56% (-29.3%).
  • FSV Mainz's UCL probability climbed from 7.6% to 26.5% (+18.9%).
  • Elversberg's UCL probability climbed from 7.6% to 25.9% (+18.3%).
  • Bayern München's UCL probability dropped from 62.2% to 44.9% (-17.3%).
  • Gladbach's Releg probability dropped from 32.8% to 19.1% (-13.7%).

Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation

Bundesliga 26/27 — Season Outlook

Bundesliga 26/27Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win the Bundesliga 26/27?
Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Dortmund currently have the highest title probability at 21%. With 30 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Bundesliga 26/27?
Gladbach currently faces the highest relegation risk at 19%, followed by Union Berlin at 16%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
How does CupChances calculate Bundesliga 26/27 probabilities?
Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
How often are the Bundesliga 26/27 predictions updated?
Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.

Past editions