Bundesliga 26/27 — Round 3 of 34
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16.3% | |
| 2 | 15.4% | |
| 3 | 10.1% | |
| 4 | 9.4% | |
| 5 | 7.7% | |
| 6 | 7.0% | |
| 7 | 4.1% | |
| 8 | 4.1% | |
| 9 | 3.9% | |
| 10 | 3.8% | |
| 11 | 3.8% | |
| 12 | 3.7% | |
| 13 | 2.9% | |
| 14 | 2.8% | |
| 15 | 1.5% | |
| 16 | 1.5% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | |
| 18 | 1.0% |
Probability of qualifying for the Champions League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47.7% | |
| 2 | 46.2% | |
| 3 | 35.6% | |
| 4 | 34.3% | |
| 5 | 30.4% | |
| 6 | 28.7% | |
| 7 | 19.9% | |
| 8 | 19.9% | |
| 9 | 19.4% | |
| 10 | 18.9% | |
| 11 | 18.5% | |
| 12 | 18.2% | |
| 13 | 15.3% | |
| 14 | 15.0% | |
| 15 | 9.1% | |
| 16 | 9.1% | |
| 17 | 7.0% | |
| 18 | 6.9% |
Probability of qualifying for the Europa League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7.7% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | |
| 3 | 7.5% | |
| 4 | 7.4% | |
| 5 | 7.0% | |
| 6 | 6.9% | |
| 7 | 5.8% | |
| 8 | 5.7% | |
| 9 | 5.7% | |
| 10 | 5.6% | |
| 11 | 5.6% | |
| 12 | 5.5% | |
| 13 | 5.0% | |
| 14 | 4.8% | |
| 15 | 3.5% | |
| 16 | 3.5% | |
| 17 | 2.8% | |
| 18 | 2.6% |
Probability of qualifying for the Conference League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7.0% | |
| 2 | 6.9% | |
| 3 | 6.8% | |
| 4 | 6.8% | |
| 5 | 6.7% | |
| 6 | 6.4% | |
| 7 | 6.0% | |
| 8 | 5.9% | |
| 9 | 5.8% | |
| 10 | 5.8% | |
| 11 | 5.8% | |
| 12 | 5.8% | |
| 13 | 5.3% | |
| 14 | 5.0% | |
| 15 | 4.0% | |
| 16 | 3.8% | |
| 17 | 3.2% | |
| 18 | 3.1% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15.3% | |
| 2 | 15.0% | |
| 3 | 11.1% | |
| 4 | 11.0% | |
| 5 | 6.3% | |
| 6 | 5.9% | |
| 7 | 4.7% | |
| 8 | 4.7% | |
| 9 | 4.5% | |
| 10 | 4.3% | |
| 11 | 4.3% | |
| 12 | 4.3% | |
| 13 | 2.2% | |
| 14 | 2.1% | |
| 15 | 1.5% | |
| 16 | 1.5% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0.7% |
Round 3 of 34
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | ECL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑1 | 3 | 9 | 16% | 48% | 8% | 7% | 1% | |
2↑1 | 3 | 9 | 15% | 46% | 8% | 7% | 1% | |
3↓2 | 3 | 7 | 10% | 36% | 7% | 7% | 2% | |
4↑2 | 3 | 7 | 9% | 34% | 8% | 7% | 2% | |
5↑3 | 3 | 6 | 8% | 30% | 7% | 7% | 2% | |
6↓2 | 3 | 6 | 7% | 29% | 7% | 6% | 2% | |
7 | 3 | 4 | 4% | 20% | 6% | 6% | 4% | |
8↓3 | 3 | 4 | 4% | 20% | 6% | 6% | 4% | |
9↑4 | 3 | 4 | 4% | 19% | 6% | 6% | 4% | |
10 | 3 | 4 | 4% | 19% | 6% | 6% | 5% | |
11↑3 | 3 | 4 | 4% | 19% | 6% | 6% | 5% | |
12↓1 | 3 | 4 | 4% | 18% | 6% | 6% | 5% | |
13↑3 | 3 | 3 | 3% | 15% | 5% | 5% | 6% | |
14↓5 | 3 | 3 | 3% | 15% | 5% | 5% | 6% | |
15↓3 | 3 | 1 | 2% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 11% | |
16↓1 | 3 | 1 | 2% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 11% | |
17 | 3 | 0 | 1% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 15% | |
18 | 3 | 0 | 1% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 15% |
WinUCLUELECLReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Bayern München#4Winner: 9.4%Champions League: 34.3%Europa League: 7.5%Conference League: 7.0%Relegation: 1.5%
6:30 PM
Union Berlin#16Winner: 1.5%Champions League: 9.1%Europa League: 3.5%Conference League: 3.8%Relegation: 11.1%
97%
1%
Werder Bremen#10Winner: 3.8%Champions League: 18.9%Europa League: 5.6%Conference League: 5.8%Relegation: 4.5%
1:30 PM
FC Augsburg#3Winner: 10.1%Champions League: 35.6%Europa League: 7.4%Conference League: 6.9%Relegation: 1.5%
20%
60%
Gladbach#17Winner: 1.0%Champions League: 7.0%Europa League: 2.8%Conference League: 3.1%Relegation: 15.0%
1:30 PM
FSV Mainz#8Winner: 4.1%Champions League: 19.9%Europa League: 5.7%Conference League: 5.9%Relegation: 4.3%
10%
76%
Frankfurt#9Winner: 3.9%Champions League: 19.4%Europa League: 5.8%Conference League: 5.8%Relegation: 4.3%
1:30 PM
SC Freiburg#1Winner: 16.3%Champions League: 47.7%Europa League: 7.5%Conference League: 6.7%Relegation: 0.7%
18%
63%
Hamburger SV#18Winner: 1.0%Champions League: 6.9%Europa League: 2.6%Conference League: 3.2%Relegation: 15.3%
1:30 PM
FC Köln#12Winner: 3.8%Champions League: 18.2%Europa League: 5.5%Conference League: 5.8%Relegation: 4.7%
68%
16%
VfB Stuttgart#14Winner: 2.8%Champions League: 15.0%Europa League: 4.8%Conference League: 5.0%Relegation: 6.3%
4:30 PM
Dortmund#2Winner: 15.4%Champions League: 46.2%Europa League: 7.7%Conference League: 6.8%Relegation: 0.7%
46%
31%
Leverkusen#7Winner: 4.1%Champions League: 19.9%Europa League: 5.7%Conference League: 6.0%Relegation: 4.3%
1:30 PM
RB Leipzig#5Winner: 7.7%Champions League: 30.4%Europa League: 7.0%Conference League: 6.8%Relegation: 2.1%
87%
4%
Schalke 04#11Winner: 3.7%Champions League: 18.5%Europa League: 5.6%Conference League: 5.8%Relegation: 4.7%
3:30 PM
Elversberg#6Winner: 7.0%Champions League: 28.7%Europa League: 6.9%Conference League: 6.4%Relegation: 2.2%
81%
7%
Paderborn#15Winner: 1.5%Champions League: 9.1%Europa League: 3.5%Conference League: 4.0%Relegation: 11.0%
5:30 PM
Hoffenheim#13Winner: 2.9%Champions League: 15.3%Europa League: 5.0%Conference League: 5.3%Relegation: 5.9%
66%
15%
Paderborn#15Winner: 1.5%Champions League: 9.1%Europa League: 3.5%Conference League: 4.0%Relegation: 11.0%
5:00 PM
VfB Stuttgart#14Winner: 2.8%Champions League: 15.0%Europa League: 4.8%Conference League: 5.0%Relegation: 6.3%
66%
15%
After Round 3: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Dortmund's UCL probability dropped from 78.6% to 46.2% (-32.4%).
- ↓Hamburger SV's Releg probability dropped from 32% to 15.3% (-16.7%).
- ↑FSV Mainz's UCL probability climbed from 6.2% to 19.9% (+13.7%).
- ↓Leverkusen's UCL probability dropped from 33% to 19.9% (-13.1%).
- ↑Frankfurt's UCL probability climbed from 8.9% to 19.4% (+10.5%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Bundesliga 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
UCL:
UEL:
ECL:
Bundesliga 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Bundesliga 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, SC Freiburg currently have the highest title probability at 16%. With 31 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Bundesliga 26/27?
- Hamburger SV currently faces the highest relegation risk at 15%, followed by Gladbach at 15%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Bundesliga 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Bundesliga 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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