Manchester United Quarterfinals Chances
Champions League 2026/27
Manchester United are an outside contender for reaching the Quarterfinals, with a 9.4% probability, and their odds are rising after the latest results.
Full Probability Breakdown
| Champion | 0.3% |
| Final | 0.9% |
| Semifinals | 3.1% |
| Quarterfinals | 9.4% |
| Round of 16 | 35.3% |
| Playoff Spot | 77.9% |
| Eliminated | 22.1% |
Manchester United are currently 20th in the Champions League 2026/27 table with 0 matches played (0W 0D 0L, 6 pts).
Probability History
What This Means
At 9.4%, Manchester United are currently a outside contender for reaching the Quarterfinals. These probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match. See Manchester United's full stats and historical probability chart on their team page. Over the last 27 rounds, Manchester United's probability of reaching the Quarterfinals has dropped from 14.8% to 9.4%.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out the remaining fixtures with a statistical model built on current standings, points, goal difference and recent form. The percentage shown is how often Manchester United achieves reaching the Quarterfinals across all those simulated seasons, and it updates automatically.
Champions League 2026/27: Quarterfinals odds for every team
| Bayern München | 74.0% |
| Inter | 61.7% |
| Barcelona | 72.4% |
| Real Madrid | 71.4% |
| Arsenal | 62.2% |
| Como | 48.1% |
| Manchester City | 47.6% |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 57.6% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 38.5% |
Showing top 9 teams by league position. View full Champions League 2026/27 table →
Includes historical probability chart, all fixtures, and live standings.