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Brasileiro 2026, Serie B·2026-04-12

Athletic Club Surge to 30% Promotion Probability

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Athletic Club Surge to 30% Promotion Probability

In a thrilling Round 4 of the Brasileiro Serie B, Fortaleza and Athletic Club have made impressive leaps in both the standings and their championship probabilities. Fortaleza's narrow 1-0 victory over São Bernardo has not only propelled them from 13th to 8th place in the standings but also increased their chance of winning the title from 4.5% to 6.5%. Their promotion chances are now at 25.1%, a significant rise from the previous 19.0%, while their relegation probability has decreased to 13.3%, providing a much-needed boost for the team.

Athletic Club also had a remarkable weekend, climbing to 3rd place after a hard-fought 3-2 win against CRB. This victory has bolstered their promotion probability by 7.2%, now standing at a strong 30.0%. Meanwhile, their relegation chances have diminished to a mere 10.4%, indicating a positive trend for the club.

Meanwhile, América-MG suffered a crushing 3-0 defeat at the hands of Novorizontino, which has seen their relegation probability spike to 38.8%. This loss leaves them languishing at the bottom of the table with just one point. Novorizontino, on the other hand, has lifted themselves from 15th to 12th place, reducing their relegation probability to 19.9%.

The tight contest between Operário-PR and Cuiabá ended in a goalless draw, causing Operário-PR to slip from the top of the table to 5th place. Atlético-GO's 2-1 victory over Londrina has provided some relief, as their relegation probability decreased by 8.5%, now standing at 28.1%.

Looking ahead, the next round promises to be just as dynamic, with Fortaleza keen to continue their ascent and América-MG desperate to reverse their fortunes. Keep an eye on Athletic Club as they strive to maintain their momentum in the push for promotion.

Live probability analysis

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