Skip to main content
Copa Sul-Americana 2026·2026-09-14·Round 2

Quarterfinals — Leg 2

By Alberto Ibarra · · Knockout Preview

Vasco and Independiente Santa Fe are locked in a 0-0 aggregate stalemate as they head into the second leg of their quarterfinal matchup. Vasco's probability of advancing sits at 45.7%, while Independiente Santa Fe's chances are slightly higher at 54.3%. Vasco's prospects of reaching the final stand at 48.6% with a 19.5% chance of winning the tournament. Independiente Santa Fe, however, sees a 62.1% probability of making it to the final and a 25.8% chance of lifting the trophy. The match's outcome will depend on which team can break the deadlock and gain a decisive edge.

São Paulo faces Boca Juniors with a 0-1 deficit on aggregate after the first leg. São Paulo's probability of overturning this disadvantage and advancing is high at 81.8%. Their chances of reaching the final are 53.9%, with a 21.4% likelihood of winning the tournament. Boca Juniors has an 18.2% probability of advancing, a significant drop from their earlier position. Their prospects for the final and winning the tournament stand at 3.1% and 0.9%, respectively. São Paulo must leverage their home advantage to nullify Boca's slim lead.

Atlético Mineiro trails Santos 0-2 on aggregate, entering the second leg with a 22.5% chance of advancing. Atlético's probability of making it to the final is at 11.8%, and their chance of winning the tournament is 2.3%. Santos holds a strong position with a 77.5% probability of progressing to the next round. Their chances of reaching the final are 77.9%, and they have a 22.3% probability of winning the tournament. Atlético Mineiro must achieve a minimum two-goal delta to push the tie into additional time or risk mathematical elimination.

Montevideo City Torque is mathematically eliminated from advancing after losing 0-2 in the first leg against Cienciano. Their probabilities for advancing, reaching the final, and winning the tournament are all at 0.0%. Cienciano, with a 100.0% chance of advancing, now focuses on their 42.7% probability of making the final and a 7.8% chance of winning the tournament. The match serves as a formality for Cienciano, who has already secured their spot in the next stage.

Live probability analysis

Go to the championship page to see the complete probability analysis with updated title, promotion and relegation chances.

Check full probability analysis