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Premier League 25/26·2026-05-02

Arsenal Surge to 86% Title Probability

By Alberto Ibarra · · Round-up

Arsenal Surge to 86% Title Probability

West Ham's relegation probability has increased significantly, rising from 32.4% to 46.7% following their 3-0 defeat to Brentford. This result leaves them precariously close to the drop zone, now only two points above 18th-placed Tottenham. Over the last two rounds, West Ham's relegation risk has surged by 15.0%, making their upcoming fixtures crucial in determining their Premier League status.

Arsenal, in contrast, has taken a commanding step towards the Premier League title. Their dominant 3-0 victory over Fulham has elevated their probability of winning the championship from 71.8% to 85.9%. Manchester City, who still have a game in hand, saw their title chances diminish from 28.2% to 14.1% after Arsenal's win.

Brighton's hopes for Europa League qualification have effectively vanished after their 3-1 loss to Newcastle. Their probability plummeted from 2.0% to a mere 0.3%, mathematically eliminating them from contention. This loss marks a critical point in their season as they shift focus to securing a top-half finish.

As the season approaches its conclusion, attention will be on West Ham's fight against relegation and Arsenal's pursuit of the title. The next rounds are set to be decisive, with each match carrying significant implications for teams at both ends of the table.

Live probability analysis

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