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Premier League 25/26·2026-05-04

Arsenal Surge to 89% Title Probability

By Lorena Laís Mota · · Round-up

Arsenal Surge to 89% Title Probability

Round 35 delivered some thrilling Premier League action, leaving Manchester City with a slimmer chance of winning the title. Despite a gripping 3-3 draw against Everton, City's title-winning probability slipped to 10.8%, down from 14.1%. Arsenal, leading the table with 76 points after 35 matches, now enjoys an impressive 89.2% probability of clinching the championship. City's drop in probability spells more than just a numerical setback; it signals a critical point as the season nears its conclusion.

In another captivating match, Nottingham Forest stunned Chelsea with a 3-1 victory at Stamford Bridge. This unexpected triumph not only boosted Forest's morale but also significantly reduced their relegation risk to a mere 0.2%. After hovering at 2.8%, this win has effectively secured their spot in the Premier League for another season. Meanwhile, Chelsea's aspirations for a Europa League spot remain a long shot, with just a 0.8% probability.

West Ham's relegation worries deepen as their probability to drop to the Championship has climbed to 68.1%, a trend that has been worsening over the last few rounds. With a tough battle ahead, they must rally to turn their fortunes in the remaining matches. As the league heads into its final phases, all eyes will be on Manchester City to see if they can close the gap on Arsenal, while West Ham faces a tense fight for survival.

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