São Paulo Winner Chances
Copa Sul-Americana 2026
São Paulo remain in realistic contention for winning the title at 20.7%, though their odds slipped after the latest round.
📊 Full Probability Breakdown
| Winner | 20.7% |
| Reaches Final | 53.2% |
| Reaches Semifinals | 81.9% |
São Paulo are currently 3rd in the Copa Sul-Americana 2026 table with 0 matches played (0W 0D 0L, 0 pts).
Probability History
🔍 What This Means
At 20.7%, São Paulo are currently a realistic contender for winning the title. These probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match. See São Paulo's full stats and historical probability chart on their team page. Over the last round, São Paulo's probability of winning the title has dropped from 26% to 20.7%.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs 1 million Monte Carlo simulations every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out the remaining fixtures using a statistical model built on current standings, points, goal difference, and head-to-head form. The percentage shown is how often São Paulo achieves winning the title across all those simulated seasons. Probabilities update automatically — no manual intervention required.
📋 Copa Sul-Americana 2026 — Winner odds for every team
| Independiente Santa Fe | 25.4% |
| Santos | 23.9% |
| Vasco | 18.8% |
| Cienciano | 7.9% |
| Atlético Mineiro | 2.4% |
| Boca Juniors | 0.9% |
| Montevideo City Torque | 0.0% |
Showing top 9 teams by league position. View full Copa Sul-Americana 2026 table →
Includes historical probability chart, all fixtures, and live standings.