Copa Sul-Americana 2026 — Round 3 of 3
Updated at
Expected champion
Open the knockout detail page for the full elimination-stage outlook.
Boca Juniors62.6%→Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors#1Win: 62.6%Final: 100.0%SF: 100.0% | 62.6% |
| 2 |  Atlético-MG#2Win: 37.4%Final: 100.0%SF: 100.0% | 37.4% |
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors#1Win: 62.6%Final: 100.0%SF: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 | Atlético-MG#2Win: 37.4%Final: 100.0%SF: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors#1Win: 62.6%Final: 100.0%SF: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 | Atlético-MG#2Win: 37.4%Final: 100.0%SF: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |  Montevideo City Torque#5SF: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 4 |  Vasco#8SF: 100.0% | 100.0% |
Round 3 of 3
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | F | SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Boca Juniors#1Win: 62.6%Final: 100.0%SF: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 63% | 100% | 100% |
2 | Atlético-MG#2Win: 37.4%Final: 100.0%SF: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 37% | 100% | 100% |
3↑1 |  Cienciano#3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
4↑1 |  Independiente Santa Fe#4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
5↓2 | Montevideo City Torque#5SF: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | — | — | 100% |
6 |  Santos#6 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
7 |  São Paulo#7 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
8 | Vasco#8SF: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | — | — | 100% |
Win
After Round 3: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↑Atlético-MG have mathematically secured Final.
- ↓Montevideo City Torque have been mathematically eliminated from Final.
- ↑Boca Juniors's Win probability climbed from 59.8% to 62.6% (+2.8%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Copa Sul-Americana 2026 — Season Outlook
Copa Sul-Americana 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Copa Sul-Americana 2026?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Boca Juniors currently have the highest title probability at 63%. With 0 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- How does CupChances calculate Copa Sul-Americana 2026 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Copa Sul-Americana 2026 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.