Copa do Brasil 2026
KNOCKOUT OUTLOOK
Expected champion
Palmeiras
Win: 35.4%
Knockout bracket outlook
Predicted bracket based on up to 1,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Final
draw TBD
Palmeiras
Internacional82%18%
SF
draw TBDPalmeiras
Cruzeiro77%23%
Internacional
Vitória55%45%
Quartas de Final
draw TBDPalmeiras
Grêmio61%39%
Cruzeiro
Santos51%49%
Internacional
Vasco53%47%
Vitória
Atlético-MG52%48%
Oitavas de Final
Athletico-PR2–00–4
2Vitória0–24–0
4Atlético-MG0–01–0
1
Juventude0–00–1
0Internacional2–01–2
3
Corinthians0–22–1
2
Mirassol1–10–1
1Grêmio1–11–0
2Palmeiras3–02–3
5
Fortaleza0–33–2
3Santos0–01–0
1
Remo0–00–1
0Vasco0–03–1
3
Fluminense0–01–3
1
Chapecoense0–00–2
0Cruzeiro0–02–0
25ª Fase
Athletico-PR0–00–0
0
Atlético-GO0–00–0
0pen 4-1
Atlético-MG2–11–2
3
Ceará1–22–1
3pen 4-2
Grêmio2–03–0
5
Confiança0–20–3
0Palmeiras3–04–1
7
Jacuipense0–31–4
1Santos0–02–0
2
Coritiba0–00–2
0
São Paulo1–01–3
2Juventude0–13–1
3
Bahia1–31–2
2Remo3–12–1
5
Athletic Club1–22–3
3Internacional2–13–2
5Fortaleza2–10–0
2
CRB1–20–0
1
Botafogo1–00–2
1Chapecoense0–12–0
2
Goiás2–20–1
2Cruzeiro2–21–0
3
Operário-PR0–01–2
1Fluminense0–02–1
2
Bragantino1–11–2
2Mirassol1–12–1
3
Paysandu0–22–2
2Vasco2–02–2
4
Barra-SC0–10–1
0Corinthians1–01–0
2
Flamengo2–10–2
2Vitória1–22–0
3Slot assignments reflect expected group outcomes. Best-third slots show the 8 most likely third-place qualifiers.
Knockout probability table
| # | Team | QF | SF | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 73.9% | 54.0% | 54.0% | 35.4% |
| 2 | Grêmio | 59.9% | 34.4% | 34.4% | 17.9% |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 49.5% | 23.2% | 23.2% | 10.5% |
| 4 | Santos | 48.2% | 21.9% | 21.9% | 9.7% |
| 5 | Internacional | 45.3% | 19.1% | 19.1% | 7.8% |
| 6 | Vasco | 42.6% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 6.8% |
| 7 | Vitória | 40.9% | 15.8% | 15.8% | 6.4% |
| 8 | Atlético-MG | 39.6% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 5.6% |