Skip to main content
Brasileirão 2026·2026-05-30·Round 18

Athletico-PR and Flamengo Surge Forward, Mirassol Struggles Deepen

By Lorena Laís Mota · · Round-up

Athletico-PR and Flamengo Surge Forward, Mirassol Struggles Deepen

In an exciting turn of events in the Brasileirão, Athletico-PR and Flamengo made significant strides following their respective victories in Round 18 matches. Athletico-PR clinched a crucial 1-0 win against Mirassol, boosting their Libertadores qualification chances to a promising 41.1%, up from 31.5% earlier in the week. This victory also nudged their championship odds to 5.4%. Meanwhile, Flamengo's commanding 3-0 victory over Coritiba not only maintained their second place in the standings but also elevated their Libertadores probabilities to a strong 75.7%, asserting their status as a serious contender for the title.

On the other hand, Mirassol's defeat came with a hefty price. Their relegation probability has risen steeply to 52.4%, a concerning jump from 43.3%. The team now finds itself deeper in the relegation zone, slipping further down to 19th place. Similarly, Coritiba's loss saw them tumble in the standings, now occupying the 8th position, with their Libertadores hopes taking a hit, dropping to a slim 16.1%.

Santos, however, offered a glimmer of hope to their supporters. Their 3-1 victory over Vitória saw a decline in their relegation worries, now at 27.7%, while also entering the Libertadores qualification race with a 5.3% chance. This victory has given them a much-needed boost in the fight to climb the standings, currently sitting in 15th place.

With the league now at its halfway point, all eyes will be on Athletico-PR and Flamengo as they continue their pursuit of top honors. Meanwhile, Mirassol and Coritiba will need to regroup quickly to avoid the looming threat of relegation as the season progresses.

Live probability analysis

Go to the championship page to see the complete probability analysis with updated title, promotion and relegation chances.

Check full probability analysis