Premier League 25/26·2026-03-01

Title: Manchester United and Arsenal Surge as Chelsea's Hopes Dwindle

· Round-up

In a dramatic turn of events in the Premier League, Manchester United has solidified its position for Champions League qualification, boosting its probability by a staggering 15.5% to now sit at 65.5%. This surge follows their recent performances, which have them looking like serious contenders for European football next season. Meanwhile, Arsenal continues its impressive run towards the title, increasing their winning probability by 10.7% to 75.7%, demonstrating their dominance this season.

Conversely, Chelsea's struggles have become more pronounced, as their Champions League chances plummeted by 11.5%, now down to just 15.0%. This marks a significant decline, with their probability halving over the last two rounds. The Blues are also facing uncertainty in the Europa League, experiencing a 2.4% drop to 18.8%. The situation is becoming dire for Chelsea fans, with their chances of securing European football dwindling rapidly.

On the other hand, Aston Villa has seen a mixed bag of results, with their Champions League hopes taking a hit, down to 72.9%, while their Europa League chances have risen to 16.2%. Meanwhile, both West Ham and Nottingham Forest are battling for survival, with West Ham's relegation probability now at 57.5%, marking a concerning 6.5% increase, while Nottingham Forest's outlook has improved slightly, dropping their relegation probability to 28.2%.

As the season progresses, all eyes will be on the upcoming matches to see if United and Arsenal can maintain their momentum while Chelsea scrambles to recover from its recent downturn.