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Championship 25/26·2026-04-06

Round 41: The Games That Define the Promotion Race

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Round 41: The Games That Define the Promotion Race

The Championship race is heating up as Ipswich Town bolstered their promotion chances with a crucial 2-1 victory over Birmingham City. This win has catapulted Ipswich's promotion probability to a promising 63.0%, a significant 24.0% rise from the previous round. This surge reflects a two-round upswing of 25.6%, solidifying their position in the top tier of contenders. Meanwhile, their playoff probability dipped to 36.9%, as their focus sharpens on a direct promotion path.

In contrast, Millwall's aspirations took a hit after a surprising 2-1 home defeat to Norwich City. Their chances of promotion dropped by 16.9% to 14.9%, although their playoff probability increased to 84.1%, suggesting they remain strong contenders for a playoff spot. Middlesbrough also experienced a setback, with their promotion likelihood declining to 19.9% after a 2-2 draw against Swansea City, marking a two-round decrease of 21.8%. However, they maintain a solid playoff chance at 79.5%.

Elsewhere, Derby County's playoff hopes received a boost following their 2-0 win over Stoke City, elevating their playoff chances to 16.8%. Meanwhile, Oxford United's struggle to avoid relegation deepened after a 2-2 draw with Portsmouth, pushing their relegation probability up to 73.4%. Blackburn Rovers, on the other hand, are slowly distancing themselves from relegation concerns, with their probability dropping to 4.2%.

As the season enters its final stretch, all eyes will be on Ipswich Town to see if they can maintain their momentum towards automatic promotion. Millwall and Middlesbrough will aim to stabilize their playoff positions, while teams like Oxford United fight to escape the drop. With just a few rounds left, the Championship promises more twists and turns in the coming weeks.