Championship 26/27 — Round 7 of 46
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough#5Win: 10.1%Promo: 18.7%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.8% | 10.1% |
| 2 |  West Ham#1Win: 9.9%Promo: 18.2%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.8% | 9.9% |
| 3 |  Southampton#2Win: 9.7%Promo: 18.1%Playoff: 26.6%Releg: 2.9% | 9.7% |
| 4 |  Swansea City#3Win: 9.5%Promo: 17.8%Playoff: 26.8%Releg: 2.8% | 9.5% |
| 5 |  West Brom#4Win: 9.1%Promo: 17.3%Playoff: 26.7%Releg: 2.9% | 9.1% |
| 6 |  Wolverhampton#8Win: 6.7%Promo: 13.1%Playoff: 23.5%Releg: 4.8% | 6.7% |
| 7 |  QPR#6Win: 5.7%Promo: 11.6%Playoff: 22.3%Releg: 5.2% | 5.7% |
| 8 |  Charlton#7Win: 5.2%Promo: 10.7%Playoff: 21.2%Releg: 5.6% | 5.2% |
| 9 |  Bristol City#11Win: 4.8%Promo: 9.7%Playoff: 20.4%Releg: 6.5% | 4.8% |
| 10 |  Millwall#13Win: 3.9%Promo: 8.1%Playoff: 18.1%Releg: 8.1% | 3.9% |
| 11 |  Birmingham#9Win: 3.5%Promo: 7.4%Playoff: 17.6%Releg: 8.5% | 3.5% |
| 12 |  Stoke City#10Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.3%Playoff: 17.3%Releg: 8.7% | 3.4% |
| 13 |  Lincoln#16Win: 2.8%Promo: 6.0%Playoff: 15.4%Releg: 10.8% | 2.8% |
| 14 |  Norwich City#12Win: 2.7%Promo: 5.8%Playoff: 15.2%Releg: 10.6% | 2.7% |
| 15 |  Sheffield Utd#14Win: 2.5%Promo: 5.6%Playoff: 14.7%Releg: 11.0% | 2.5% |
| 16 |  Portsmouth#18Win: 2.1%Promo: 4.8%Playoff: 13.4%Releg: 13.2% | 2.1% |
| 17 |  Blackburn#15Win: 1.9%Promo: 4.5%Playoff: 13.0%Releg: 13.5% | 1.9% |
| 18 |  Watford#17Win: 1.8%Promo: 4.1%Playoff: 12.4%Releg: 14.1% | 1.8% |
| 19 |  Wrexham#19Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.2%Playoff: 10.3%Releg: 17.2% | 1.4% |
| 20 |  Bolton#20Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.2%Playoff: 10.4%Releg: 17.8% | 1.4% |
| 21 |  Cardiff#21Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.4%Playoff: 5.8%Releg: 29.4% | 0.6% |
| 22 |  Derby County#22Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.3%Playoff: 5.7%Releg: 30.3% | 0.5% |
| 23 |  Preston#23Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.0%Playoff: 4.6%Releg: 34.8% | 0.4% |
| 24 |  Burnley#24Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.0%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 35.6% | 0.4% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough#5Win: 10.1%Promo: 18.7%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.8% | 18.7% |
| 2 | West Ham#1Win: 9.9%Promo: 18.2%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.8% | 18.2% |
| 3 | Southampton#2Win: 9.7%Promo: 18.1%Playoff: 26.6%Releg: 2.9% | 18.1% |
| 4 | Swansea City#3Win: 9.5%Promo: 17.8%Playoff: 26.8%Releg: 2.8% | 17.8% |
| 5 | West Brom#4Win: 9.1%Promo: 17.3%Playoff: 26.7%Releg: 2.9% | 17.3% |
| 6 | Wolverhampton#8Win: 6.7%Promo: 13.1%Playoff: 23.5%Releg: 4.8% | 13.1% |
| 7 | QPR#6Win: 5.7%Promo: 11.6%Playoff: 22.3%Releg: 5.2% | 11.6% |
| 8 | Charlton#7Win: 5.2%Promo: 10.7%Playoff: 21.2%Releg: 5.6% | 10.7% |
| 9 | Bristol City#11Win: 4.8%Promo: 9.7%Playoff: 20.4%Releg: 6.5% | 9.7% |
| 10 | Millwall#13Win: 3.9%Promo: 8.1%Playoff: 18.1%Releg: 8.1% | 8.1% |
| 11 | Birmingham#9Win: 3.5%Promo: 7.4%Playoff: 17.6%Releg: 8.5% | 7.4% |
| 12 | Stoke City#10Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.3%Playoff: 17.3%Releg: 8.7% | 7.3% |
| 13 | Lincoln#16Win: 2.8%Promo: 6.0%Playoff: 15.4%Releg: 10.8% | 6.0% |
| 14 | Norwich City#12Win: 2.7%Promo: 5.8%Playoff: 15.2%Releg: 10.6% | 5.8% |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd#14Win: 2.5%Promo: 5.6%Playoff: 14.7%Releg: 11.0% | 5.6% |
| 16 | Portsmouth#18Win: 2.1%Promo: 4.8%Playoff: 13.4%Releg: 13.2% | 4.8% |
| 17 | Blackburn#15Win: 1.9%Promo: 4.5%Playoff: 13.0%Releg: 13.5% | 4.5% |
| 18 | Watford#17Win: 1.8%Promo: 4.1%Playoff: 12.4%Releg: 14.1% | 4.1% |
| 19 | Wrexham#19Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.2%Playoff: 10.3%Releg: 17.2% | 3.2% |
| 20 | Bolton#20Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.2%Playoff: 10.4%Releg: 17.8% | 3.2% |
| 21 | Cardiff#21Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.4%Playoff: 5.8%Releg: 29.4% | 1.4% |
| 22 | Derby County#22Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.3%Playoff: 5.7%Releg: 30.3% | 1.3% |
| 23 | Preston#23Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.0%Playoff: 4.6%Releg: 34.8% | 1.0% |
| 24 | Burnley#24Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.0%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 35.6% | 1.0% |
Chances of participation in the playoff phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham#1Win: 9.9%Promo: 18.2%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.8% | 27.1% |
| 2 | Middlesbrough#5Win: 10.1%Promo: 18.7%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.8% | 27.1% |
| 3 | Swansea City#3Win: 9.5%Promo: 17.8%Playoff: 26.8%Releg: 2.8% | 26.8% |
| 4 | West Brom#4Win: 9.1%Promo: 17.3%Playoff: 26.7%Releg: 2.9% | 26.7% |
| 5 | Southampton#2Win: 9.7%Promo: 18.1%Playoff: 26.6%Releg: 2.9% | 26.6% |
| 6 | Wolverhampton#8Win: 6.7%Promo: 13.1%Playoff: 23.5%Releg: 4.8% | 23.5% |
| 7 | QPR#6Win: 5.7%Promo: 11.6%Playoff: 22.3%Releg: 5.2% | 22.3% |
| 8 | Charlton#7Win: 5.2%Promo: 10.7%Playoff: 21.2%Releg: 5.6% | 21.2% |
| 9 | Bristol City#11Win: 4.8%Promo: 9.7%Playoff: 20.4%Releg: 6.5% | 20.4% |
| 10 | Millwall#13Win: 3.9%Promo: 8.1%Playoff: 18.1%Releg: 8.1% | 18.1% |
| 11 | Birmingham#9Win: 3.5%Promo: 7.4%Playoff: 17.6%Releg: 8.5% | 17.6% |
| 12 | Stoke City#10Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.3%Playoff: 17.3%Releg: 8.7% | 17.3% |
| 13 | Lincoln#16Win: 2.8%Promo: 6.0%Playoff: 15.4%Releg: 10.8% | 15.4% |
| 14 | Norwich City#12Win: 2.7%Promo: 5.8%Playoff: 15.2%Releg: 10.6% | 15.2% |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd#14Win: 2.5%Promo: 5.6%Playoff: 14.7%Releg: 11.0% | 14.7% |
| 16 | Portsmouth#18Win: 2.1%Promo: 4.8%Playoff: 13.4%Releg: 13.2% | 13.4% |
| 17 | Blackburn#15Win: 1.9%Promo: 4.5%Playoff: 13.0%Releg: 13.5% | 13.0% |
| 18 | Watford#17Win: 1.8%Promo: 4.1%Playoff: 12.4%Releg: 14.1% | 12.4% |
| 19 | Bolton#20Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.2%Playoff: 10.4%Releg: 17.8% | 10.4% |
| 20 | Wrexham#19Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.2%Playoff: 10.3%Releg: 17.2% | 10.3% |
| 21 | Cardiff#21Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.4%Playoff: 5.8%Releg: 29.4% | 5.8% |
| 22 | Derby County#22Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.3%Playoff: 5.7%Releg: 30.3% | 5.7% |
| 23 | Preston#23Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.0%Playoff: 4.6%Releg: 34.8% | 4.6% |
| 24 | Burnley#24Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.0%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 35.6% | 4.3% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burnley#24Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.0%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 35.6% | 35.6% |
| 2 | Preston#23Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.0%Playoff: 4.6%Releg: 34.8% | 34.8% |
| 3 | Derby County#22Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.3%Playoff: 5.7%Releg: 30.3% | 30.3% |
| 4 | Cardiff#21Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.4%Playoff: 5.8%Releg: 29.4% | 29.4% |
| 5 | Bolton#20Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.2%Playoff: 10.4%Releg: 17.8% | 17.8% |
| 6 | Wrexham#19Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.2%Playoff: 10.3%Releg: 17.2% | 17.2% |
| 7 | Watford#17Win: 1.8%Promo: 4.1%Playoff: 12.4%Releg: 14.1% | 14.1% |
| 8 | Blackburn#15Win: 1.9%Promo: 4.5%Playoff: 13.0%Releg: 13.5% | 13.5% |
| 9 | Portsmouth#18Win: 2.1%Promo: 4.8%Playoff: 13.4%Releg: 13.2% | 13.2% |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd#14Win: 2.5%Promo: 5.6%Playoff: 14.7%Releg: 11.0% | 11.0% |
| 11 | Lincoln#16Win: 2.8%Promo: 6.0%Playoff: 15.4%Releg: 10.8% | 10.8% |
| 12 | Norwich City#12Win: 2.7%Promo: 5.8%Playoff: 15.2%Releg: 10.6% | 10.6% |
| 13 | Stoke City#10Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.3%Playoff: 17.3%Releg: 8.7% | 8.7% |
| 14 | Birmingham#9Win: 3.5%Promo: 7.4%Playoff: 17.6%Releg: 8.5% | 8.5% |
| 15 | Millwall#13Win: 3.9%Promo: 8.1%Playoff: 18.1%Releg: 8.1% | 8.1% |
| 16 | Bristol City#11Win: 4.8%Promo: 9.7%Playoff: 20.4%Releg: 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 17 | Charlton#7Win: 5.2%Promo: 10.7%Playoff: 21.2%Releg: 5.6% | 5.6% |
| 18 | QPR#6Win: 5.7%Promo: 11.6%Playoff: 22.3%Releg: 5.2% | 5.2% |
| 19 | Wolverhampton#8Win: 6.7%Promo: 13.1%Playoff: 23.5%Releg: 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 20 | Southampton#2Win: 9.7%Promo: 18.1%Playoff: 26.6%Releg: 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 21 | West Brom#4Win: 9.1%Promo: 17.3%Playoff: 26.7%Releg: 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 22 | West Ham#1Win: 9.9%Promo: 18.2%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 23 | Swansea City#3Win: 9.5%Promo: 17.8%Playoff: 26.8%Releg: 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 24 | Middlesbrough#5Win: 10.1%Promo: 18.7%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.8% | 2.8% |
Round 7 of 46
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | PO | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑2 | West Ham#1Win: 9.9%Promo: 18.2%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.8% | 7 | 14 | 10% | 18% | 27% | 3% |
2 | Southampton#2Win: 9.7%Promo: 18.1%Playoff: 26.6%Releg: 2.9% | 7 | 14 | 10% | 18% | 27% | 3% |
3↑1 | Swansea City#3Win: 9.5%Promo: 17.8%Playoff: 26.8%Releg: 2.8% | 7 | 14 | 10% | 18% | 27% | 3% |
4↓3 | West Bromwich Albion#4Win: 9.1%Promo: 17.3%Playoff: 26.7%Releg: 2.9% | 7 | 14 | 9% | 17% | 27% | 3% |
5↑2 | Middlesbrough#5Win: 10.1%Promo: 18.7%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.8% | 6 | 13 | 10% | 19% | 27% | 3% |
6↓1 | Queens Park Rangers#6Win: 5.7%Promo: 11.6%Playoff: 22.3%Releg: 5.2% | 7 | 12 | 6% | 12% | 22% | 5% |
7↓1 | Charlton Athletic#7Win: 5.2%Promo: 10.7%Playoff: 21.2%Releg: 5.6% | 7 | 12 | 5% | 11% | 21% | 6% |
8↑4 | Wolverhampton#8Win: 6.7%Promo: 13.1%Playoff: 23.5%Releg: 4.8% | 6 | 11 | 7% | 13% | 24% | 5% |
9↑6 | Birmingham City#9Win: 3.5%Promo: 7.4%Playoff: 17.6%Releg: 8.5% | 7 | 10 | 4% | 7% | 18% | 9% |
10↑6 | Stoke City#10Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.3%Playoff: 17.3%Releg: 8.7% | 7 | 10 | 3% | 7% | 17% | 9% |
11↓3 | Bristol City#11Win: 4.8%Promo: 9.7%Playoff: 20.4%Releg: 6.5% | 6 | 10 | 5% | 10% | 20% | 7% |
12↓2 | Norwich City#12Win: 2.7%Promo: 5.8%Playoff: 15.2%Releg: 10.6% | 7 | 9 | 3% | 6% | 15% | 11% |
13↓4 | Millwall#13Win: 3.9%Promo: 8.1%Playoff: 18.1%Releg: 8.1% | 6 | 9 | 4% | 8% | 18% | 8% |
14↓3 | Sheffield United#14Win: 2.5%Promo: 5.6%Playoff: 14.7%Releg: 11.0% | 7 | 9 | 3% | 6% | 15% | 11% |
15↑3 | Blackburn Rovers#15Win: 1.9%Promo: 4.5%Playoff: 13.0%Releg: 13.5% | 7 | 8 | 2% | 5% | 13% | 14% |
16↑3 | Lincoln#16Win: 2.8%Promo: 6.0%Playoff: 15.4%Releg: 10.8% | 6 | 8 | 3% | 6% | 15% | 11% |
17↓4 | Watford#17Win: 1.8%Promo: 4.1%Playoff: 12.4%Releg: 14.1% | 7 | 8 | 2% | 4% | 12% | 14% |
18↓1 | Portsmouth#18Win: 2.1%Promo: 4.8%Playoff: 13.4%Releg: 13.2% | 6 | 7 | 2% | 5% | 13% | 13% |
19↓5 | Wrexham#19Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.2%Playoff: 10.3%Releg: 17.2% | 7 | 7 | 1% | 3% | 10% | 17% |
20↑1 | Bolton#20Win: 1.4%Promo: 3.2%Playoff: 10.4%Releg: 17.8% | 7 | 7 | 1% | 3% | 10% | 18% |
21↓1 | Cardiff#21Win: 0.6%Promo: 1.4%Playoff: 5.8%Releg: 29.4% | 7 | 4 | 1% | 1% | 6% | 29% |
22 | Derby County#22Win: 0.5%Promo: 1.3%Playoff: 5.7%Releg: 30.3% | 7 | 4 | 1% | 1% | 6% | 30% |
23↑1 | Preston North End#23Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.0%Playoff: 4.6%Releg: 34.8% | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1% | 5% | 35% |
24↓1 | Burnley#24Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.0%Playoff: 4.3%Releg: 35.6% | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1% | 4% | 36% |
WinPromoPlayoffReleg
Next matches
Sheffield Utd#14Winner: 2.5%Promotion: 5.6%Playoff: 14.7%Relegation: 11.0%0-1Wolverhampton#8Winner: 6.7%Promotion: 13.1%Playoff: 23.5%Relegation: 4.8%
0-1Wolverhampton#8Winner: 6.7%Promotion: 13.1%Playoff: 23.5%Relegation: 4.8%Bristol City#11Winner: 4.8%Promotion: 9.7%Playoff: 20.4%Relegation: 6.5%15:45Lincoln#16Winner: 2.8%Promotion: 6.0%Playoff: 15.4%Relegation: 10.8%
15:45Lincoln#16Winner: 2.8%Promotion: 6.0%Playoff: 15.4%Relegation: 10.8%34%
39%
Middlesbrough#5Winner: 10.1%Promotion: 18.7%Playoff: 27.1%Relegation: 2.8%15:45Millwall#13Winner: 3.9%Promotion: 8.1%Playoff: 18.1%Relegation: 8.1%
15:45Millwall#13Winner: 3.9%Promotion: 8.1%Playoff: 18.1%Relegation: 8.1%32%
43%
Bristol City#11Winner: 4.8%Promotion: 9.7%Playoff: 20.4%Relegation: 6.5%16:00Watford#17Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 4.1%Playoff: 12.4%Relegation: 14.1%
16:00Watford#17Winner: 1.8%Promotion: 4.1%Playoff: 12.4%Relegation: 14.1%34%
39%
Cardiff#21Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 1.4%Playoff: 5.8%Relegation: 29.4%08:30Charlton#7Winner: 5.2%Promotion: 10.7%Playoff: 21.2%Relegation: 5.6%
08:30Charlton#7Winner: 5.2%Promotion: 10.7%Playoff: 21.2%Relegation: 5.6%35%
38%
Burnley#24Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 1.0%Playoff: 4.3%Relegation: 35.6%11:00Derby County#22Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 1.3%Playoff: 5.7%Relegation: 30.3%
11:00Derby County#22Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 1.3%Playoff: 5.7%Relegation: 30.3%15%
63%
Wrexham#19Winner: 1.4%Promotion: 3.2%Playoff: 10.3%Relegation: 17.2%11:00Southampton#2Winner: 9.7%Promotion: 18.1%Playoff: 26.6%Relegation: 2.9%
11:00Southampton#2Winner: 9.7%Promotion: 18.1%Playoff: 26.6%Relegation: 2.9%56%
20%
Millwall#13Winner: 3.9%Promotion: 8.1%Playoff: 18.1%Relegation: 8.1%08:30West Ham#1Winner: 9.9%Promotion: 18.2%Playoff: 27.1%Relegation: 2.8%
08:30West Ham#1Winner: 9.9%Promotion: 18.2%Playoff: 27.1%Relegation: 2.8%71%
11%
Lincoln#16Winner: 2.8%Promotion: 6.0%Playoff: 15.4%Relegation: 10.8%11:00Swansea City#3Winner: 9.5%Promotion: 17.8%Playoff: 26.8%Relegation: 2.8%
11:00Swansea City#3Winner: 9.5%Promotion: 17.8%Playoff: 26.8%Relegation: 2.8%0%
99%
Portsmouth#18Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 4.8%Playoff: 13.4%Relegation: 13.2%11:00Blackburn#15Winner: 1.9%Promotion: 4.5%Playoff: 13.0%Relegation: 13.5%
11:00Blackburn#15Winner: 1.9%Promotion: 4.5%Playoff: 13.0%Relegation: 13.5%38%
34%
After Round 7: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓West Ham's Promo probability dropped from 43.8% to 18.2% (-25.6%).
- ↓Southampton's Promo probability dropped from 42% to 18.1% (-23.9%).
- ↓Preston's Releg probability dropped from 57.3% to 34.8% (-22.5%).
- ↓Derby County's Releg probability dropped from 43.5% to 30.3% (-13.2%).
- ↓Millwall's Playoff probability dropped from 29.8% to 18.1% (-11.7%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Championship 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
Promo:
Playoff:
Championship 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Championship 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, West Ham currently have the highest title probability at 10%. With 39 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Championship 26/27?
- Burnley currently faces the highest relegation risk at 36%, followed by Preston at 35%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Championship 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Championship 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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