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Copa do Brasil 2026

KNOCKOUT OUTLOOK

Expected champion

Palmeiras

Palmeiras

Win: 38.1%

Knockout bracket outlook

Predicted bracket based on up to 1,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

Final

draw TBD
Palmeiras
Vitória
100%0%

SF

draw TBD
Palmeiras
Grêmio
59%41%
Vitória
Santos
50%50%

Quartas de Final

draw TBD
Atlético-MG
Grêmio
45%55%
Palmeiras
Vasco
66%34%
Vitória
Internacional
50%50%
Santos
Cruzeiro
50%50%

Oitavas de Final

Athletico-PR
2–00–4
2
Vitória
0–24–0
4
Atlético-MG
0–01–0
1
Juventude
0–00–1
0
Internacional
2–01–2
3
Corinthians
0–22–1
2
Mirassol
1–10–1
1
Grêmio
1–11–0
2
Palmeiras
3–02–3
5
Fortaleza
0–33–2
3
Santos
0–01–0
1
Remo
0–00–1
0
Vasco
0–03–1
3
Fluminense
0–01–3
1
Chapecoense
0–00–2
0
Cruzeiro
0–02–0
2

5ª Fase

Athletico-PR
0–00–0
0
Atlético-GO
0–00–0
0
pen 4-1
Atlético-MG
2–11–2
3
Ceará
1–22–1
3
pen 4-2
Grêmio
2–03–0
5
Confiança
0–20–3
0
Palmeiras
3–04–1
7
Jacuipense
0–31–4
1
Santos
0–02–0
2
Coritiba
0–00–2
0
São Paulo
1–01–3
2
Juventude
0–13–1
3
Bahia
1–31–2
2
Remo
3–12–1
5
Athletic Club
1–22–3
3
Internacional
2–13–2
5
Fortaleza
2–10–0
2
CRB
1–20–0
1
Botafogo
1–00–2
1
Chapecoense
0–12–0
2
Goiás
2–20–1
2
Cruzeiro
2–21–0
3
Operário-PR
0–01–2
1
Fluminense
0–02–1
2
Bragantino
1–11–2
2
Mirassol
1–12–1
3
Paysandu
0–22–2
2
Vasco
2–02–2
4
Barra-SC
0–10–1
0
Corinthians
1–01–0
2
Flamengo
2–10–2
2
Vitória
1–22–0
3

Slot assignments reflect expected group outcomes. Best-third slots show the 8 most likely third-place qualifiers.

Knockout probability table

#TeamSFFinalWin
1Palmeiras logoPalmeiras65.7%65.7%38.1%
2Grêmio logoGrêmio55.4%55.4%26.1%
3Atlético-MG logoAtlético-MG44.6%44.6%19.6%
4Vasco logoVasco34.3%34.3%16.2%