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Copa do Brasil 2026

Updated at

Expected champion

Open the knockout detail page for the full elimination-stage outlook.

Palmeiras logoPalmeiras38.1%→
Probability of winning the championship
#Team%
1Palmeiras logoPalmeiras#1Win: 38.1%Final: 65.7%SF: 65.7%QF: 100.0%R16: 100.0%
38.1%
2Grêmio logoGrêmio#2Win: 26.1%Final: 55.4%SF: 55.4%QF: 100.0%R16: 100.0%
26.1%
3Atlético-MG logoAtlético-MG#3Win: 19.6%Final: 44.6%SF: 44.6%QF: 100.0%R16: 100.0%
19.6%
4Vasco logoVasco#4Win: 16.2%Final: 34.3%SF: 34.3%QF: 100.0%R16: 100.0%
16.2%

Next matches

Palmeiras#1Winner: 38.1%Reaches Final: 65.7%Reaches Semifinals: 65.7%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%Vasco#4Winner: 16.2%Reaches Final: 34.3%Reaches Semifinals: 34.3%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
Palmeiras#1Winner: 38.1%Reaches Final: 65.7%Reaches Semifinals: 65.7%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%Vasco#4Winner: 16.2%Reaches Final: 34.3%Reaches Semifinals: 34.3%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
Grêmio#2Winner: 26.1%Reaches Final: 55.4%Reaches Semifinals: 55.4%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%Atlético-MG#3Winner: 19.6%Reaches Final: 44.6%Reaches Semifinals: 44.6%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
Grêmio#2Winner: 26.1%Reaches Final: 55.4%Reaches Semifinals: 55.4%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%Atlético-MG#3Winner: 19.6%Reaches Final: 44.6%Reaches Semifinals: 44.6%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
Vasco#4Winner: 16.2%Reaches Final: 34.3%Reaches Semifinals: 34.3%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%Palmeiras#1Winner: 38.1%Reaches Final: 65.7%Reaches Semifinals: 65.7%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
Vasco#4Winner: 16.2%Reaches Final: 34.3%Reaches Semifinals: 34.3%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%Palmeiras#1Winner: 38.1%Reaches Final: 65.7%Reaches Semifinals: 65.7%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
Atlético-MG#3Winner: 19.6%Reaches Final: 44.6%Reaches Semifinals: 44.6%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%Grêmio#2Winner: 26.1%Reaches Final: 55.4%Reaches Semifinals: 55.4%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
Atlético-MG#3Winner: 19.6%Reaches Final: 44.6%Reaches Semifinals: 44.6%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%Grêmio#2Winner: 26.1%Reaches Final: 55.4%Reaches Semifinals: 55.4%Reaches Quarterfinals: 100.0%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%

Results

Thu, Sep 3

Grêmio3 – 1Internacional
Grêmio3 – 1Internacional

Wed, Sep 2

Santos0 – 0Palmeiras
Santos0 – 0Palmeiras
Vitória0 – 2Vasco
Vitória0 – 2Vasco

Tue, Sep 1

Atlético-MG2 – 1Cruzeiro
Atlético-MG2 – 1Cruzeiro

Thu, Aug 27

Internacional0 – 0Grêmio
Internacional0 – 0Grêmio

Wed, Aug 26

Palmeiras3 – 0Santos
Vasco1 – 0Vitória
Vasco1 – 0Vitória
Palmeiras3 – 0Santos

Tue, Aug 25

Cruzeiro1 – 1Atlético-MG
Cruzeiro1 – 1Atlético-MG

Thu, Aug 6

Corinthians2 – 1Internacional
Vitória4 – 0Athletico-PR
Vitória4 – 0Athletico-PR
Corinthians2 – 1Internacional

Wed, Aug 5

Cruzeiro2 – 0Chapecoense
Cruzeiro2 – 0Chapecoense
Grêmio1 – 0Mirassol
Grêmio1 – 0Mirassol
Fluminense1 – 3Vasco
Fortaleza3 – 2Palmeiras
Fortaleza3 – 2Palmeiras
Fluminense1 – 3Vasco

Tue, Aug 4

Juventude0 – 1Atlético-MG
Juventude0 – 1Atlético-MG
Remo0 – 1Santos
Remo0 – 1Santos

Mon, Aug 3

Athletico-PR2 – 0Vitória
Athletico-PR2 – 0Vitória

Sun, Aug 2

Palmeiras3 – 0Fortaleza
Palmeiras3 – 0Fortaleza
Mirassol1 – 1Grêmio
Mirassol1 – 1Grêmio
Chapecoense0 – 0Cruzeiro
Chapecoense0 – 0Cruzeiro
Internacional2 – 0Corinthians
Internacional2 – 0Corinthians

Sat, Aug 1

Vasco0 – 0Fluminense
Vasco0 – 0Fluminense
Atlético-MG0 – 0Juventude
Atlético-MG0 – 0Juventude
Santos0 – 0Remo
Santos0 – 0Remo

Thu, May 14

Chapecoense2 – 0Botafogo
Chapecoense2 – 0Botafogo
Atlético-GO0 – 0(1-4 pen)Athletico-PR
Confiança0 – 3Grêmio
Confiança0 – 3Grêmio
Atlético-GO0 – 0(1-4 pen)Athletico-PR
Corinthians1 – 0Barra-SC
Corinthians1 – 0Barra-SC
CRB0 – 0Fortaleza
CRB0 – 0Fortaleza
Vitória2 – 0Flamengo
Vitória2 – 0Flamengo

Wed, May 13

Juventude3 – 1São Paulo
Juventude3 – 1São Paulo
Vasco2 – 2Paysandu
Vasco2 – 2Paysandu
Coritiba0 – 2Santos
Coritiba0 – 2Santos
Mirassol2 – 1Bragantino
Mirassol2 – 1Bragantino
Jacuipense1 – 4Palmeiras
Remo2 – 1Bahia
Ceará2 – 1(2-4 pen)Atlético-MG
Remo2 – 1Bahia
Ceará2 – 1(2-4 pen)Atlético-MG
Jacuipense1 – 4Palmeiras

Tue, May 12

Internacional3 – 2Athletic Club
Internacional3 – 2Athletic Club
Fluminense2 – 1Operário-PR
Cruzeiro1 – 0Goiás
Fluminense2 – 1Operário-PR
Cruzeiro1 – 0Goiás

Thu, Apr 23

Atlético-MG2 – 1Ceará
Atlético-MG2 – 1Ceará
Palmeiras3 – 0Jacuipense
Palmeiras3 – 0Jacuipense
Athletico-PR0 – 0Atlético-GO
Athletico-PR0 – 0Atlético-GO
Operário-PR0 – 0Fluminense
Operário-PR0 – 0Fluminense

Wed, Apr 22

Bahia1 – 3Remo
Goiás2 – 2Cruzeiro
Bahia1 – 3Remo
Goiás2 – 2Cruzeiro
Santos0 – 0Coritiba
Santos0 – 0Coritiba
Athletic Club1 – 2Internacional
Athletic Club1 – 2Internacional
Fortaleza2 – 1CRB
Fortaleza2 – 1CRB
Flamengo2 – 1Vitória
Bragantino1 – 1Mirassol
Flamengo2 – 1Vitória
Bragantino1 – 1Mirassol

Tue, Apr 21

Botafogo1 – 0Chapecoense
Botafogo1 – 0Chapecoense
São Paulo1 – 0Juventude
São Paulo1 – 0Juventude
Grêmio2 – 0Confiança
Grêmio2 – 0Confiança
Paysandu0 – 2Vasco
Paysandu0 – 2Vasco
Barra-SC0 – 1Corinthians
Barra-SC0 – 1Corinthians

Thu, Mar 19

Maringá0 – 1Goiás
Juventude3 – 0Águia de Marabá
Volta Redonda0 – 0(1-3 pen)Barra-SC

Wed, Mar 18

Vila Nova0 – 0(3-5 pen)Confiança
Atlético-GO1 – 0Ponte Preta
CRB1 – 0Figueirense
Jacuipense0 – 0(5-4 pen)Novorizontino

Tue, Mar 17

Nova Iguaçu0 – 1Fortaleza
São Bernardo0 – 0(2-3 pen)Ceará
Portuguesa2 – 3Paysandu
Sport1 – 3Athletic Club
Londrina0 – 1Operário-PR

Thu, Mar 12

Amazonas0 – 1Figueirense
Barra-SC0 – 0(4-3 pen)América-MG

Wed, Mar 11

Volta Redonda0 – 0(5-3 pen)América-RN
Santa Catarina0 – 1Jacuipense
Castanhal0 – 4Nova Iguaçu

Tue, Mar 10

Portuguesa1 – 1(4-1 pen)Avaí

Thu, Mar 5

Desportiva Ferroviária0 – 0(3-4 pen)Sport
Juventude5 – 0Guaporé

Wed, Mar 4

Velo Clube0 – 0(2-4 pen)Vila Nova
Avaí3 – 0Porto Vitória
Betim0 – 2Operário-PR
Santa Catarina1 – 1(5-4 pen)Cuiabá
Rio Branco-ES1 – 1(5-6 pen)Athletic Club
Ivinhema2 – 4Volta Redonda
América-MG1 – 1(4-3 pen)Tirol

Tue, Mar 3

CRB6 – 0Porto-BA

Thu, Feb 26

Ceará2 – 1Primavera-SP

Wed, Feb 25

Castanhal1 – 1(5-3 pen)Guarani
Atlético-GO1 – 0Primavera-MT
Novorizontino4 – 0Nacional-AM
Londrina1 – 0Penedense
Imperatriz0 – 3Amazonas
Gama2 – 2(4-5 pen)Goiás
São Bernardo2 – 0Atlético-BA

Tue, Feb 24

Fortaleza4 – 3Maguary

After Round 3: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?

  • ↑Vasco have mathematically secured QF.
  • ↓Cruzeiro have been mathematically eliminated from QF.
  • ↓Santos have been mathematically eliminated from QF.
  • ↑Atlético-MG have mathematically secured QF.
  • ↑Grêmio have mathematically secured QF.

Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation

Copa do Brasil 2026 — Season Outlook

Win:

Palmeiras Win Chances (38.1%)Grêmio Win Chances (26.1%)Atlético-MG Win Chances (19.6%)Vasco Win Chances (16.2%)

Final:

Palmeiras Final Chances (65.7%)Grêmio Final Chances (55.4%)Atlético-MG Final Chances (44.6%)Vasco Final Chances (34.3%)

SF:

Palmeiras SF Chances (65.7%)Grêmio SF Chances (55.4%)Atlético-MG SF Chances (44.6%)Vasco SF Chances (34.3%)

QF:

Palmeiras QF Chances (100.0%)Grêmio QF Chances (100.0%)Atlético-MG QF Chances (100.0%)Vasco QF Chances (100.0%)

R16:

Palmeiras R16 Chances (100.0%)Grêmio R16 Chances (100.0%)Atlético-MG R16 Chances (100.0%)Vasco R16 Chances (100.0%)Internacional R16 Chances (100.0%)Vitória R16 Chances (100.0%)

Copa do Brasil 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win the Copa do Brasil 2026?
Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Palmeiras currently have the highest title probability at 38%. With -3 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
How does CupChances calculate Copa do Brasil 2026 probabilities?
Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
How often are the Copa do Brasil 2026 predictions updated?
Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.