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Brasileirão 2026·2026-04-25

São Paulo Surge to 8% Title Probability

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São Paulo Surge to 8% Title Probability

São Paulo's narrow 1-0 victory over Mirassol has given them a significant boost in their quest for Libertadores qualification. The win has elevated São Paulo's chances of making it to the prestigious tournament by a notable 9%, now standing at 39.2%. This positive turn reflects their strong position in the league, currently sitting comfortably in 4th place, tied on points with Fluminense and Flamengo. Meanwhile, Mirassol's defeat has further darkened their prospects, pushing their relegation probability to a concerning 51.5%.

In other matches, Cruzeiro's 1-0 win over Remo not only gave them a vital three points but also saw their relegation probability drop significantly by 9.5%, now at 19.5%. Their Sulamericana qualification hopes have also improved, climbing to 36.5%. In contrast, Remo finds themselves in a precarious position, with their relegation chances surging to 66.9%. This represents a troubling increase over the past two rounds, with a total rise of 14.7%.

Elsewhere, Bahia and Santos played to a 2-2 draw, slightly denting Bahia's Libertadores aspirations, which now sit at 34.3%, down by 3% from last week. Santos, too, saw a drop in their Libertadores prospects, now at just 4.4%, as they continue to struggle near the relegation zone. Botafogo and Internacional also shared points in a 2-2 draw, further dampening Internacional's Libertadores hopes, now down to 4.4%, and increasing their relegation concerns to 29.4%.

As the league progresses, fans should keep an eye on São Paulo's push for a Libertadores spot and watch how teams like Remo and Mirassol respond to their relegation battles. With many matches still to play, the race for top positions and the fight to avoid the drop promise plenty of drama.

Live probability analysis

Go to the championship page to see the complete probability analysis with updated title, promotion and relegation chances.

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