Skip to main content
Brasileirão 2026·2026-08-09·Round 22

Chances Shift in Brasileirão After Key Round 22 Results

By Lorena Laís Mota · · Round-up

Chances Shift in Brasileirão After Key Round 22 Results

The latest round of Brasileirão action has reshaped the championship landscape significantly. Palmeiras' goalless draw with Internacional trimmed their winning odds to 65.8%, still comfortably leading the race but with a slight dip. Meanwhile, Flamengo's 2-0 victory over Vitória has boosted their chances, climbing to a 21.6% shot at the title, solidifying their second-place position with an eye on the top spot.

Athletico-PR made a strong statement with their 2-0 win against Santos, now sitting third in the standings. Their Libertadores qualification chances soared by a notable 10.2%, now at 73.5%, as they continue to challenge the upper echelon. For Bragantino, however, a 2-0 loss to Corinthians saw their Libertadores hopes take a hit, dropping to an 18.2% chance. Yet, they saw a positive uptick in their Sulamericana prospects, which rose to 46.9%.

At the other end of the table, the relegation battle is intensifying. Mirassol's defeat to Cruzeiro increased their relegation risk to 33.6%, while Santos now faces a daunting 42.8% chance of relegation following their loss. Corinthians, meanwhile, are breathing a sigh of relief as their relegation probability recedes to just 2.7%, thanks to their recent win.

Looking ahead, Palmeiras will aim to regain their momentum and fend off Flamengo's challenge, while Athletico-PR will look to maintain their impressive form. The relegation fight remains fierce, with teams like Santos and Mirassol desperately needing to turn their fortunes around in the coming matches.

Live probability analysis

Go to the championship page to see the complete probability analysis with updated title, promotion and relegation chances.

Check full probability analysis