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Copa do Brasil 2026·2026-08-06·Round 16

Vitória's Decisive Win Shakes Up Copa do Brasil Probabilities

By Alberto Ibarra · · Round-up

Vitória's Decisive Win Shakes Up Copa do Brasil Probabilities

Vitória's overwhelming 4-0 victory against Athletico-PR has dramatically altered the Copa do Brasil landscape. Vitória's probability of reaching the Round of 16 has surged from 11.8% to 100%, confirming their advancement. Their potential to make it to the finals has risen significantly from 1.9% to 15.8%, while their championship chances climbed from 0.7% to 6.4%. In contrast, Athletico-PR's defeat has eliminated them from all further stages, with their chances dropping from 88.2% to 0% for the Round of 16 and from 41.1% to 0% for the Quarterfinals.

In the other match, Corinthians edged out Internacional 2-1. Despite the win, Corinthians are mathematically eliminated from all subsequent stages, seeing their Round of 16 chances drop from 17.3% to 0%. Internacional, while defeated, secured their spot in the Round of 16 with a 100% probability, up from 82.7%. This result highlights the competitive nature of the tournament as teams fight for progression.

Looking ahead, the focus will be on how teams like Palmeiras and Grêmio, with increasing probabilities over the last two rounds, will capitalize on this momentum in their pursuit of Copa do Brasil glory.

Live probability analysis

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