Derby County
Derby County Playoff Chances 2026 — 18.4%
Championship 25/26 · Round 45 of 46 · Rank #8 · 45 MP
Live — Updated at
Derby County are 8th in the Championship 25/26 2026 season after 45 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 18.4% chance of playoff — with 1 round still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.
In their last 5 Championship 25/26 matches, Derby County have recorded 3 wins, 2 defeats. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.
Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining Championship 25/26 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Derby County's 2026 season has evolved round by round.
Current Probabilities:
- Winner: 0.0%Since 2026-02-21
- Promotion: 0.0%Since 2026-03-08
- Playoff: 18.4%
- Relegation: 0.0%Since 2026-01-17
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Results so far
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Queens Park Rangers#14 | 2 - 3 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2026-04-21 | Norwich City#9 | 2 - 1 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2026-04-18 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 0 |  Oxford United#22Relegation: 100.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | Southampton#5Promotion: 3.4%Playoff: 96.6% | 2 - 1 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2026-04-06 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 2 - 0 |  Stoke City#17 |
| 2026-04-03 | Coventry City#1Winner: 100.0%Promotion: 100.0% | 3 - 2 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2026-03-21 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 0 |  Birmingham City#10 |
| 2026-03-16 | Portsmouth#18 | 0 - 1 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2026-03-10 | Millwall#3Promotion: 16.6%Playoff: 83.4% | 1 - 0 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2026-03-07 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 2 - 1 |  Sheffield Wednesday#24Relegation: 99.9% |
| 2026-02-28 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 3 - 1 |  Blackburn Rovers#21 |
| 2026-02-24 | Hull City#7Playoff: 29.6% | 4 - 2 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2026-02-21 | Watford#16 | 2 - 0 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2026-02-14 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 2 - 0 |  Swansea City#11 |
| 2026-02-07 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 2 |  Ipswich Town#2Promotion: 72.7%Playoff: 27.3% |
| 2026-01-30 | Bristol City#13 | 0 - 5 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2026-01-23 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 1 |  West Bromwich Albion#19 |
| 2026-01-20 | Charlton Athletic#20 | 1 - 2 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2026-01-17 | Preston North End#12 | 0 - 1 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2026-01-04 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 2 |  Wrexham#6Playoff: 52.0% |
| 2026-01-01 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 0 |  Middlesbrough#4Promotion: 7.3%Playoff: 92.7% |
| 2025-12-29 | Leicester City#23Relegation: 99.9% | 2 - 1 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2025-12-26 | Birmingham City#10 | 1 - 1 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2025-12-20 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 1 | Portsmouth#18 |
| 2025-12-15 | Sheffield Wednesday#24Relegation: 99.9% | 0 - 3 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2025-12-10 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 1 | Millwall#3Promotion: 16.6%Playoff: 83.4% |
| 2025-12-06 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 3 | Leicester City#23Relegation: 99.9% |
| 2025-11-29 | Middlesbrough#4Promotion: 7.3%Playoff: 92.7% | 2 - 1 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2025-11-25 | Swansea City#11 | 1 - 2 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2025-11-22 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 2 - 3 | Watford#16 |
| 2025-11-08 | Blackburn Rovers#21 | 1 - 2 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2025-11-04 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 2 - 1 | Hull City#7Playoff: 29.6% |
| 2025-11-01 | Sheffield United#15 | 1 - 3 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2025-10-25 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 0 | Queens Park Rangers#14 |
| 2025-10-21 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 0 | Norwich City#9 |
| 2025-10-18 | Oxford United#22Relegation: 100.0% | 1 - 0 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2025-10-04 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 1 | Southampton#5Promotion: 3.4%Playoff: 96.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 1 | Charlton Athletic#20 |
| 2025-09-27 | Wrexham#6Playoff: 52.0% | 1 - 1 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2025-09-20 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 0 - 1 | Preston North End#12 |
| 2025-09-13 | West Bromwich Albion#19 | 0 - 1 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2025-08-30 | Ipswich Town#2Promotion: 72.7%Playoff: 27.3% | 2 - 2 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |
| 2025-08-22 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 1 - 1 | Bristol City#13 |
| 2025-08-16 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% | 3 - 5 | Coventry City#1Winner: 100.0%Promotion: 100.0% |
| 2025-08-09 | Stoke City#17 | 3 - 1 | Derby County#8Playoff: 18.4% |