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Brasileirão 2026·2026-05-03

Palmeiras Surge to 48% Title Probability

By Lorena Laís Mota · · Round-up

Palmeiras Surge to 48% Title Probability

The latest round of Brasileirão action has shaken up the landscape, with significant shifts in championship and relegation probabilities. Internacional's impressive 2-0 victory over Fluminense has breathed new life into their campaign, boosting their chances of qualifying for the prestigious Copa Libertadores from a slim 4.1% to a more hopeful 7.0%. This win also helped them reduce their relegation probability by 9%, a crucial development as they find themselves climbing the standings.

On the other hand, Chapecoense continues to struggle. Their narrow 2-1 defeat to Bragantino has compounded their relegation troubles, with their chances of dropping down now at a daunting 68%. This marks a worrying trend for the club, with their relegation probability having increased by 16.7% over the past three rounds.

Meanwhile, Bragantino's victory not only aided their escape from the relegation zone, reducing their odds to 8.8%, but also bolstered their Libertadores hopes, now sitting at 16.6%. Corinthians, however, face a discouraging dip, their Libertadores aspirations fading further to 3.6% following a surprising 2-1 loss to Mirassol, who celebrated a significant drop in their relegation likelihood to 41.6%.

With Palmeiras leading the pack and Flamengo following closely behind, the coming weeks will be pivotal, particularly for those clubs teetering on the edge of triumph or disaster. Keep an eye on the upcoming fixtures, as every point becomes ever more critical in this tightly contested league.

Live probability analysis

Go to the championship page to see the complete probability analysis with updated title, promotion and relegation chances.

Check full probability analysis