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Champions League 2026/27·2026-09-07·Round 1

Knockout Stage: Round 1 Preview

By Alberto Ibarra · · Knockout Preview

The Round 1 of the knockout stage presents a diverse array of match-ups, each with varying probabilities of advancement. AEK Athens and LASK meet with LASK holding a 15.6% chance of reaching the quarterfinals compared to AEK Athens' 10.4%. Both teams have marginal prospects of winning the tournament, with LASK's probability standing at 0.4% and AEK Athens at 0.2%.

Club Brugge hosts Aston Villa, where Club Brugge carries a 15.1% chance of progressing, slightly higher than Aston Villa's 9.6%. The probability for either team to win the tournament remains low, with Club Brugge at 0.4% and Aston Villa at 0.2%.

Borussia Dortmund enters their match against Villarreal with a 21.8% likelihood of advancing to the quarterfinals, a significant advantage over Villarreal's 4.5%. Dortmund's chances of winning the tournament stand at 0.9%, while Villarreal's are effectively zero.

In the fixture between FC Porto and Manchester City, City has a commanding 52.7% probability of advancing, illustrating their stronger position relative to Porto's 13.9%. City's likelihood of tournament victory is 7.4%, indicating a more favorable outlook than Porto's 0.3%.

Lille and Betis face off with Lille holding a 10.0% chance of reaching the next round, compared to Betis' 3.6%. Both teams have a mere 0.2% chance of winning the entire tournament.

Real Madrid confronts Inter with the latter having a 76.1% likelihood of advancing, a stark contrast to Madrid's 36.2%. Inter's probability of winning the tournament is 22.2%, significantly higher than Madrid's 3.4%.

Barcelona has a 74.0% probability of overcoming Feyenoord, whose chances stand at 9.6%. Barcelona's likelihood of tournament victory is 17.2%, whereas Feyenoord's is 0.2%.

VfB Stuttgart and Viking FK have close probabilities of advancement, with Viking FK at 12.5% and Stuttgart at 8.5%. Both teams have minimal chances of winning the tournament, at 0.3% and 0.1% respectively.

Liverpool and Atlético de Madrid's clash sees Atlético with a higher probability of reaching the quarterfinals at 5.4%, compared to Liverpool's 3.2%. Both teams have negligible chances of tournament victory.

Napoli's encounter with Arsenal shows Arsenal with a 51.3% probability of advancing, compared to Napoli's 31.7%. Arsenal's probability of winning is 7.2%, while Napoli's is 2.1%.

Paris Saint-Germain hosts Slovan Bratislava with Slovan holding a 12.1% chance of reaching the quarterfinals, slightly higher than PSG's 10.4%. Both teams have low probabilities of winning at 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.

Sporting CP and Galatasaray face off with Galatasaray at 14.5% for progression, compared to Sporting CP's 8.5%. Their winning chances are minimal, with Galatasaray at 0.3% and Sporting at 0.2%.

Fenerbahçe and Roma's match sees Roma with a 40.7% probability of advancing, significantly higher than Fenerbahçe's 18.7%. Roma's winning probability is 3.7%, while Fenerbahçe's is 0.4%.

PSV Eindhoven and Shakhtar Donetsk have closely matched probabilities, with PSV at 16.0% and Shakhtar at 12.0%. Both teams have a 0.4% and 0.3% chance of winning the tournament respectively.

Bayern München versus Bodø/Glimt highlights Bayern's 79.6% chance of advancing, a significant advantage over Bodø/Glimt's 12.6%. Bayern's probability of winning the tournament is 24.7%, indicating a strong position.

Como and RasenBallsport Leipzig's fixture sees Como with a 24.3% chance of progression, higher than Leipzig's 5.8%. Como's chance of winning is 1.2%, while Leipzig's is 0.1%.

Manchester United and Sabah FK's match shows United with a 43.8% chance of advancing, significantly more favorable than Sabah's 8.5%. United's probability of winning stands at 4.1%.

Finally, Slavia Praha and RC Lens have close chances of progression, with Lens at 14.2% and Slavia at 12.6%. Both teams have a 0.3% chance of tournament victory.

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