Chapecoense Relegation Chances
Brasileirão 2026
Chapecoense are the clear favourite for relegation with a 98.4% probability, though their odds slipped after the latest round.
📊 Full Probability Breakdown
| Winner | 0.0% |
| Libertadores | 0.0% |
| Libertadores Qualification | 0.0% |
| Copa Sulamericana | 0.1% |
| Relegation | 98.4% |
Chapecoense are currently 20th in the Brasileirão 2026 table with 22 matches played (1W 8D 13L, 11 pts).
Probability History
🔍 What This Means
At 98.4%, Chapecoense are currently a strong contender for relegation. These probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match. See Chapecoense's full stats and historical probability chart on their team page. Over the last 2 rounds, Chapecoense's probability of relegation has climbed from 96.6% to 98.4%.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs 1 million Monte Carlo simulations every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out the remaining fixtures using a statistical model built on current standings, points, goal difference, and head-to-head form. The percentage shown is how often Chapecoense achieves relegation across all those simulated seasons. Probabilities update automatically — no manual intervention required.
📋 Brasileirão 2026 — Relegation odds for every team
| Palmeiras | 0.0% |
| Flamengo | 0.0% |
| Athletico-PR | 0.0% |
| Fluminense | 0.1% |
| Cruzeiro | 0.4% |
| Bahia | 1.7% |
| Bragantino | 2.0% |
| Atlético-MG | 2.0% |
| Corinthians | 4.0% |
Showing top 9 teams by league position. View full Brasileirão 2026 table →
Includes historical probability chart, all fixtures, and live standings.