Chapecoense Relegation Chances
Brasileirão 2026
Chapecoense are the clear favourite for relegation with a 96.4% probability, and their odds are rising after the latest results.
📊 Full Probability Breakdown
| Winner | 0.0% |
| Libertadores | 0.0% |
| Libertadores Qualification | 0.0% |
| Copa Sulamericana | 0.2% |
| Relegation | 96.4% |
Chapecoense are currently 20th in the Brasileirão 2026 table with 25 matches played (3W 8D 14L, 17 pts).
Probability History
🔍 What This Means
At 96.4%, Chapecoense are currently a strong contender for relegation. These probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match. See Chapecoense's full stats and historical probability chart on their team page. Over the last round, Chapecoense's probability of relegation has dropped from 98.3% to 96.4%.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs 1 million Monte Carlo simulations every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out the remaining fixtures using a statistical model built on current standings, points, goal difference, and head-to-head form. The percentage shown is how often Chapecoense achieves relegation across all those simulated seasons. Probabilities update automatically — no manual intervention required.
📋 Brasileirão 2026 — Relegation odds for every team
| Flamengo | 0.0% |
| Palmeiras | 0.0% |
| Athletico-PR | 0.0% |
| Fluminense | 0.0% |
| Bahia | 0.0% |
| Cruzeiro | 0.0% |
| Coritiba | 0.6% |
| Atlético-MG | 0.6% |
| Bragantino | 1.2% |
Showing top 9 teams by league position. View full Brasileirão 2026 table →
Includes historical probability chart, all fixtures, and live standings.