Chapecoense Relegation Chances 2026

📊 Full Probability Breakdown

Chapecoense are currently 20th in the Brasileirão 2026 table with 22 matches played (1W 8D 13L, 11 pts).

Probability History

🔍 What This Means

At 98.4%, Chapecoense are currently a strong contender for relegation from the Brasileirão. The model simulates every remaining Brasileirão fixture to estimate how often Chapecoense finish inside the bottom four and face the drop. Over the last 2 rounds, Chapecoense's probability of relegation from the Brasileirão has climbed from 96.6% to 98.4%.

How These Probabilities Are Calculated

CupChances runs 1 million Monte Carlo simulations every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out the remaining fixtures using a statistical model built on current standings, points, goal difference, and head-to-head form. The percentage shown is how often Chapecoense achieves relegation from the Brasileirão across all those simulated seasons. Probabilities update automatically — no manual intervention required.

📋 Brasileirão 2026 — relegation odds for every team

Showing top 9 teams by league position. View full Brasileirão 2026 table →