Skip to main content
Brasileirão 2026·2026-04-26

Palmeiras Surge to 46% Title Probability

By Lorena Laís Mota · · Round-up

Palmeiras Surge to 46% Title Probability

Round 13 of the Brasileirão brought a mix of triumph and tribulation as teams battled for crucial points. Corinthians, with a tidy 1-0 victory over Vasco, saw their fortunes take a positive turn. Their chance of relegation decreased significantly to 24.2%, while they also entered the Libertadores qualification conversation with a 6.9% chance. This upward trajectory is a welcome change for Corinthians fans who have been hoping for signs of promise.

Flamengo delivered a commanding performance against Atlético-MG, thrashing them 4-0. This emphatic win not only bolstered their standing in the league but also saw their Libertadores qualification probability rise to an impressive 64.4%. As they remain in the hunt for the title, currently sitting second in the standings, Flamengo's consistent form keeps them well within the top contenders.

On the flip side, Chapecoense's struggles continued with a 2-1 defeat to Fluminense, pushing their relegation probability to a troubling 58.7%. Fluminense celebrated an 8.9% jump in their Libertadores chances, now at 56.4%, as they maintain their spot near the top of the table. Athletico-PR also had reason to celebrate, climbing to fifth place after a 3-1 victory over Vitória and increasing their Libertadores probability to 31.7%.

With Palmeiras holding a firm grip at the top after a narrow win over Bragantino, the upcoming rounds promise more drama. Keep an eye on the mid-table battle, where every point could dramatically alter the relegation and qualification landscapes.

Live probability analysis

Go to the championship page to see the complete probability analysis with updated title, promotion and relegation chances.

Check full probability analysis