Palmeiras Libertadores Chances
Brasileirão 2026
Palmeiras are the clear favourite for Copa Libertadores with a 99.5% probability, though their odds slipped after the latest round.
📊 Full Probability Breakdown
| Winner | 39.6% |
| Libertadores | 99.5% |
| Libertadores Qualification | 0.5% |
| Copa Sulamericana | 0.0% |
| Relegation | 0.0% |
Palmeiras are currently 2nd in the Brasileirão 2026 table with 27 matches played (16W 8D 3L, 56 pts).
Probability History
🔍 What This Means
At 99.5%, Palmeiras are currently a strong contender for Copa Libertadores. These probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match. See Palmeiras's full stats and historical probability chart on their team page. Over the last round, Palmeiras's probability of Copa Libertadores has climbed from 97.8% to 99.5%.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs 1 million Monte Carlo simulations every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out the remaining fixtures using a statistical model built on current standings, points, goal difference, and head-to-head form. The percentage shown is how often Palmeiras achieves Copa Libertadores across all those simulated seasons. Probabilities update automatically — no manual intervention required.
📋 Brasileirão 2026 — Libertadores odds for every team
| Flamengo | 99.8% |
| Athletico-PR | 57.8% |
| Bahia | 53.2% |
| Fluminense | 43.2% |
| Cruzeiro | 21.1% |
| Atlético-MG | 13.2% |
| Coritiba | 4.1% |
| Bragantino | 3.9% |
| Santos | 2.2% |
Showing top 9 teams by league position. View full Brasileirão 2026 table →
Includes historical probability chart, all fixtures, and live standings.