Premier League Title Race 2026
Premier League 2025/26
Every Premier League team ranked by their live title probability — our supercomputer runs up to millions of simulations updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
Title Race — Live Probabilities
| # | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 100.0% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 0.0% |
| 3 | Manchester United | 0.0% |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 0.0% |
| 5 | Liverpool | 0.0% |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 0.0% |
| 7 | Sunderland | 0.0% |
| 8 | Brighton | 0.0% |
| 9 | Brentford | 0.0% |
| 10 | Chelsea | 0.0% |
| 11 | Fulham | 0.0% |
| 12 | Newcastle | 0.0% |
| 13 | Everton | 0.0% |
| 14 | Leeds United | 0.0% |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 0.0% |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 0.0% |
| 17 | Tottenham | 0.0% |
| 18 | West Ham | 0.0% |
| 19 | Burnley | 0.0% |
| 20 | Wolverhampton | 0.0% |
Live — updated every 10 minutes during every matchRound 38
About This Race
The Premier League title race is one of the most competitive in Europe — the model simulates every remaining fixture to show exact chances for each club.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out every remaining fixture and counts how often each team ends up in the title places. The percentages shown reflect those simulated outcomes, updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
View full Premier League 2025/26 table →
Full standings, match results, and all team probability charts.