Premier League Top 4 Race 2026
Premier League 2025/26
Every Premier League team ranked by their live probability of finishing top 4 and qualifying for the Champions League — updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
Biggest Movers This Round
↑ Biggest gains
Aston Villa
100.0%+11.1%
↓ Biggest drops
Liverpool
0.0%-11.1%
Top 4 Race — Live Probabilities
| # | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 100.0% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 100.0% |
| 3 | Manchester United | 100.0% |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 100.0% |
| 5 | Liverpool | 0.0% |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 0.0% |
| 7 | Sunderland | 0.0% |
| 8 | Brighton | 0.0% |
| 9 | Brentford | 0.0% |
| 10 | Chelsea | 0.0% |
| 11 | Fulham | 0.0% |
| 12 | Newcastle | 0.0% |
| 13 | Everton | 0.0% |
| 14 | Leeds United | 0.0% |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 0.0% |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 0.0% |
| 17 | Tottenham | 0.0% |
| 18 | West Ham | 0.0% |
| 19 | Burnley | 0.0% |
| 20 | Wolverhampton | 0.0% |
Live — updated every 10 minutes during every matchRound 38
About This Race
The top four clubs in the Premier League qualify directly for the UEFA Champions League. This model shows the current race in real time.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out every remaining fixture and counts how often each team ends up in the Champions League qualification places. The percentages shown reflect those simulated outcomes, updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
View full Premier League 2025/26 table →
Full standings, match results, and all team probability charts.