Brasileirão 2026 — Round 31 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo#1Win: 60.5%Libertadores: 100.0% | 60.5% |
| 2 |  Palmeiras#2Win: 39.0%Libertadores: 100.0% | 39.0% |
| 3 |  Athletico-PR#3Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 78.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.3%Sulamericana: 2.3% | 0.5% |
| 4 |  Fluminense#4Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 53.5%Pre-Libertadores: 36.8%Sulamericana: 9.8% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Libertadores group phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo#1Win: 60.5%Libertadores: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 | Palmeiras#2Win: 39.0%Libertadores: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 78.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.3%Sulamericana: 2.3% | 78.4% |
| 4 | Fluminense#4Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 53.5%Pre-Libertadores: 36.8%Sulamericana: 9.8% | 53.5% |
| 5 |  Bahia#5Libertadores: 27.2%Pre-Libertadores: 46.0%Sulamericana: 26.8% | 27.2% |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro#6Libertadores: 24.6%Pre-Libertadores: 43.2%Sulamericana: 32.3% | 24.6% |
| 7 |  Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 14.7%Pre-Libertadores: 39.0%Sulamericana: 46.2% | 14.7% |
| 8 |  Santos#8Libertadores: 1.0%Pre-Libertadores: 7.4%Sulamericana: 84.6%Releg: 0.1% | 1.0% |
| 9 |  Bragantino#9Libertadores: 0.3%Pre-Libertadores: 3.5%Sulamericana: 80.8%Releg: 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 10 |  São Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 2.1%Sulamericana: 74.7%Releg: 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 11 |  Coritiba#11Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 1.7%Sulamericana: 69.2%Releg: 1.7% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Libertadores qualification phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia#5Libertadores: 27.2%Pre-Libertadores: 46.0%Sulamericana: 26.8% | 46.0% |
| 2 | Cruzeiro#6Libertadores: 24.6%Pre-Libertadores: 43.2%Sulamericana: 32.3% | 43.2% |
| 3 | Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 14.7%Pre-Libertadores: 39.0%Sulamericana: 46.2% | 39.0% |
| 4 | Fluminense#4Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 53.5%Pre-Libertadores: 36.8%Sulamericana: 9.8% | 36.8% |
| 5 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 78.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.3%Sulamericana: 2.3% | 19.3% |
| 6 | Santos#8Libertadores: 1.0%Pre-Libertadores: 7.4%Sulamericana: 84.6%Releg: 0.1% | 7.4% |
| 7 | Bragantino#9Libertadores: 0.3%Pre-Libertadores: 3.5%Sulamericana: 80.8%Releg: 0.4% | 3.5% |
| 8 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 2.1%Sulamericana: 74.7%Releg: 1.0% | 2.1% |
| 9 | Coritiba#11Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 1.7%Sulamericana: 69.2%Releg: 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 10 |  Vasco#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.4%Sulamericana: 45.0%Releg: 7.8% | 0.4% |
| 11 |  Vitória#12Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 42.9%Releg: 8.1% | 0.3% |
| 12 |  Botafogo#14Pre-Libertadores: 0.2%Sulamericana: 41.0%Releg: 8.2% | 0.2% |
Probability of access to Copa Sulamericana
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santos#8Libertadores: 1.0%Pre-Libertadores: 7.4%Sulamericana: 84.6%Releg: 0.1% | 84.6% |
| 2 | Bragantino#9Libertadores: 0.3%Pre-Libertadores: 3.5%Sulamericana: 80.8%Releg: 0.4% | 80.8% |
| 3 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 2.1%Sulamericana: 74.7%Releg: 1.0% | 74.7% |
| 4 | Coritiba#11Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 1.7%Sulamericana: 69.2%Releg: 1.7% | 69.2% |
| 5 | Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 14.7%Pre-Libertadores: 39.0%Sulamericana: 46.2% | 46.2% |
| 6 | Vasco#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.4%Sulamericana: 45.0%Releg: 7.8% | 45.0% |
| 7 | Vitória#12Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 42.9%Releg: 8.1% | 42.9% |
| 8 | Botafogo#14Pre-Libertadores: 0.2%Sulamericana: 41.0%Releg: 8.2% | 41.0% |
| 9 | Cruzeiro#6Libertadores: 24.6%Pre-Libertadores: 43.2%Sulamericana: 32.3% | 32.3% |
| 10 | Bahia#5Libertadores: 27.2%Pre-Libertadores: 46.0%Sulamericana: 26.8% | 26.8% |
| 11 |  Mirassol#13Sulamericana: 24.9%Releg: 15.9% | 24.9% |
| 12 |  Corinthians#16Sulamericana: 10.5%Releg: 41.2% | 10.5% |
| 13 | Fluminense#4Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 53.5%Pre-Libertadores: 36.8%Sulamericana: 9.8% | 9.8% |
| 14 |  Grêmio#18Sulamericana: 5.1%Releg: 58.1% | 5.1% |
| 15 |  Internacional#17Sulamericana: 4.0%Releg: 61.1% | 4.0% |
| 16 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 78.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.3%Sulamericana: 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 17 |  Remo#19Sulamericana: 0.1%Releg: 96.7% | 0.1% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chapecoense#20Releg: 99.9% | 99.9% |
| 2 | Remo#19Sulamericana: 0.1%Releg: 96.7% | 96.7% |
| 3 | Internacional#17Sulamericana: 4.0%Releg: 61.1% | 61.1% |
| 4 | Grêmio#18Sulamericana: 5.1%Releg: 58.1% | 58.1% |
| 5 | Corinthians#16Sulamericana: 10.5%Releg: 41.2% | 41.2% |
| 6 | Mirassol#13Sulamericana: 24.9%Releg: 15.9% | 15.9% |
| 7 | Botafogo#14Pre-Libertadores: 0.2%Sulamericana: 41.0%Releg: 8.2% | 8.2% |
| 8 | Vitória#12Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 42.9%Releg: 8.1% | 8.1% |
| 9 | Vasco#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.4%Sulamericana: 45.0%Releg: 7.8% | 7.8% |
| 10 | Coritiba#11Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 1.7%Sulamericana: 69.2%Releg: 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 11 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 2.1%Sulamericana: 74.7%Releg: 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 12 | Bragantino#9Libertadores: 0.3%Pre-Libertadores: 3.5%Sulamericana: 80.8%Releg: 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 13 | Santos#8Libertadores: 1.0%Pre-Libertadores: 7.4%Sulamericana: 84.6%Releg: 0.1% | 0.1% |
Round 31 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Lib | LQ | Sul | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Flamengo#1Win: 60.5%Libertadores: 100.0% | 30 | 64 | 61% | 100% | — | — | — |
2 | Palmeiras#2Win: 39.0%Libertadores: 100.0% | 30 | 63 | 39% | 100% | — | — | — |
3 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 78.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.3%Sulamericana: 2.3% | 30 | 53 | 1% | 78% | 19% | 2% | — |
4 | Fluminense#4Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 53.5%Pre-Libertadores: 36.8%Sulamericana: 9.8% | 30 | 51 | 0% | 54% | 37% | 10% | — |
5 | Bahia#5Libertadores: 27.2%Pre-Libertadores: 46.0%Sulamericana: 26.8% | 30 | 49 | — | 27% | 46% | 27% | — |
6 | Cruzeiro#6Libertadores: 24.6%Pre-Libertadores: 43.2%Sulamericana: 32.3% | 30 | 48 | — | 25% | 43% | 32% | — |
7 | Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 14.7%Pre-Libertadores: 39.0%Sulamericana: 46.2% | 30 | 47 | — | 15% | 39% | 46% | — |
8 | Santos#8Libertadores: 1.0%Pre-Libertadores: 7.4%Sulamericana: 84.6%Releg: 0.1% | 30 | 42 | — | 1% | 7% | 85% | 0% |
9 | Bragantino#9Libertadores: 0.3%Pre-Libertadores: 3.5%Sulamericana: 80.8%Releg: 0.4% | 30 | 40 | — | 0% | 4% | 81% | 0% |
10 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 2.1%Sulamericana: 74.7%Releg: 1.0% | 30 | 39 | — | 0% | 2% | 75% | 1% |
11 | Coritiba#11Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 1.7%Sulamericana: 69.2%Releg: 1.7% | 30 | 39 | — | 0% | 2% | 69% | 2% |
12 | Vitória#12Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 42.9%Releg: 8.1% | 30 | 36 | — | — | 0% | 43% | 8% |
13↑2 | Mirassol#13Sulamericana: 24.9%Releg: 15.9% | 31 | 36 | — | — | — | 25% | 16% |
14↓1 | Botafogo#14Pre-Libertadores: 0.2%Sulamericana: 41.0%Releg: 8.2% | 30 | 36 | — | — | 0% | 41% | 8% |
15↓1 | Vasco#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.4%Sulamericana: 45.0%Releg: 7.8% | 29 | 35 | — | — | 0% | 45% | 8% |
16 | Corinthians#16Sulamericana: 10.5%Releg: 41.2% | 30 | 32 | — | — | — | 11% | 41% |
17 | Internacional#17Sulamericana: 4.0%Releg: 61.1% | 31 | 32 | — | — | — | 4% | 61% |
18 | Grêmio#18Sulamericana: 5.1%Releg: 58.1% | 30 | 31 | — | — | — | 5% | 58% |
19 | Remo#19Sulamericana: 0.1%Releg: 96.7% | 30 | 25 | — | — | — | 0% | 97% |
20 | Chapecoense#20Releg: 99.9% | 29 | 18 | — | — | — | — | 100% |
WinLibertadoresPre-LibertadoresSulamericanaReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Botafogo#14Libertadores Qualification: 0.2%Copa Sulamericana: 41.0%Relegation: 8.2%1-0LiveChapecoense#20Relegation: 99.9%
1-0LiveChapecoense#20Relegation: 99.9%Fluminense#4Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 53.5%Libertadores Qualification: 36.8%Copa Sulamericana: 9.8%7:00 PMSantos#8Libertadores: 1.0%Libertadores Qualification: 7.4%Copa Sulamericana: 84.6%Relegation: 0.1%
7:00 PMSantos#8Libertadores: 1.0%Libertadores Qualification: 7.4%Copa Sulamericana: 84.6%Relegation: 0.1%51%
24%
Grêmio#18Copa Sulamericana: 5.1%Relegation: 58.1%7:00 PMCruzeiro#6Libertadores: 24.6%Libertadores Qualification: 43.2%Copa Sulamericana: 32.3%
7:00 PMCruzeiro#6Libertadores: 24.6%Libertadores Qualification: 43.2%Copa Sulamericana: 32.3%45%
28%
Bahia#5Libertadores: 27.2%Libertadores Qualification: 46.0%Copa Sulamericana: 26.8%9:30 PMFlamengo#1Winner: 60.5%Libertadores: 100.0%
9:30 PMFlamengo#1Winner: 60.5%Libertadores: 100.0%28%
44%
Remo#19Copa Sulamericana: 0.1%Relegation: 96.7%10:30 PMBragantino#9Libertadores: 0.3%Libertadores Qualification: 3.5%Copa Sulamericana: 80.8%Relegation: 0.4%
10:30 PMBragantino#9Libertadores: 0.3%Libertadores Qualification: 3.5%Copa Sulamericana: 80.8%Relegation: 0.4%32%
38%
Corinthians#16Copa Sulamericana: 10.5%Relegation: 41.2%11:00 PMVitória#12Libertadores Qualification: 0.3%Copa Sulamericana: 42.9%Relegation: 8.1%
11:00 PMVitória#12Libertadores Qualification: 0.3%Copa Sulamericana: 42.9%Relegation: 8.1%50%
21%
Mirassol#13Copa Sulamericana: 24.9%Relegation: 15.9%7:30 PMSão Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.2%Libertadores Qualification: 2.1%Copa Sulamericana: 74.7%Relegation: 1.0%
7:30 PMSão Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.2%Libertadores Qualification: 2.1%Copa Sulamericana: 74.7%Relegation: 1.0%46%
25%
Internacional#17Copa Sulamericana: 4.0%Relegation: 61.1%7:30 PMBotafogo#14Libertadores Qualification: 0.2%Copa Sulamericana: 41.0%Relegation: 8.2%
7:30 PMBotafogo#14Libertadores Qualification: 0.2%Copa Sulamericana: 41.0%Relegation: 8.2%41%
31%
Vitória#12Libertadores Qualification: 0.3%Copa Sulamericana: 42.9%Relegation: 8.1%7:30 PMAthletico-PR#3Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 78.4%Libertadores Qualification: 19.3%Copa Sulamericana: 2.3%
7:30 PMAthletico-PR#3Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 78.4%Libertadores Qualification: 19.3%Copa Sulamericana: 2.3%43%
28%
After Round 31: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↑Coritiba's Sulamericana probability climbed from 39.4% to 69.2% (+29.8%).
- ↓Mirassol's Releg probability dropped from 39.2% to 15.9% (-23.3%).
- ↓Vasco's Sulamericana probability dropped from 64.2% to 45% (-19.2%).
- ↓Fluminense's Libertadores probability dropped from 69.3% to 53.5% (-15.8%).
- ↑Grêmio's Releg probability climbed from 46.3% to 58.1% (+11.8%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Brasileirão 2026 — Season Outlook
Win:
Libertadores:
Pre-Libertadores:
Sulamericana:
Brasileirão 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileirão 2026?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Flamengo currently have the highest title probability at 61%. With 7 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileirão 2026?
- Chapecoense currently faces the highest relegation risk at 100%, followed by Remo at 97%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileirão 2026 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileirão 2026 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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