Brasileirão 2026 — Round 24 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras#1Win: 65.9%Libertadores: 98.7%Pre-Libertadores: 1.2%Sulamericana: 0.1% | 65.9% |
| 2 |  Flamengo#2Win: 22.2%Libertadores: 88.4%Pre-Libertadores: 8.8%Sulamericana: 2.8% | 22.2% |
| 3 |  Athletico-PR#3Win: 6.3%Libertadores: 64.8%Pre-Libertadores: 21.5%Sulamericana: 13.5% | 6.3% |
| 4 |  Fluminense#4Win: 2.8%Libertadores: 50.8%Pre-Libertadores: 27.2%Sulamericana: 21.3% | 2.8% |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro#5Win: 1.4%Libertadores: 34.2%Pre-Libertadores: 29.6%Sulamericana: 34.5%Releg: 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 6 |  Bahia#6Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Pre-Libertadores: 25.2%Sulamericana: 50.2%Releg: 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 7 |  Bragantino#7Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Pre-Libertadores: 24.7%Sulamericana: 50.0%Releg: 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 8 |  Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 9.7%Pre-Libertadores: 17.6%Sulamericana: 57.9%Releg: 1.5% | 0.2% |
| 9 |  Corinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 4.5%Pre-Libertadores: 11.4%Sulamericana: 60.3%Releg: 3.4% | 0.1% |
| 10 |  Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.6%Pre-Libertadores: 12.0%Sulamericana: 57.4%Releg: 4.2% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Libertadores group phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras#1Win: 65.9%Libertadores: 98.7%Pre-Libertadores: 1.2%Sulamericana: 0.1% | 98.7% |
| 2 | Flamengo#2Win: 22.2%Libertadores: 88.4%Pre-Libertadores: 8.8%Sulamericana: 2.8% | 88.4% |
| 3 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 6.3%Libertadores: 64.8%Pre-Libertadores: 21.5%Sulamericana: 13.5% | 64.8% |
| 4 | Fluminense#4Win: 2.8%Libertadores: 50.8%Pre-Libertadores: 27.2%Sulamericana: 21.3% | 50.8% |
| 5 | Cruzeiro#5Win: 1.4%Libertadores: 34.2%Pre-Libertadores: 29.6%Sulamericana: 34.5%Releg: 0.1% | 34.2% |
| 6 | Bahia#6Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Pre-Libertadores: 25.2%Sulamericana: 50.2%Releg: 0.3% | 18.6% |
| 7 | Bragantino#7Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Pre-Libertadores: 24.7%Sulamericana: 50.0%Releg: 0.4% | 18.6% |
| 8 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 9.7%Pre-Libertadores: 17.6%Sulamericana: 57.9%Releg: 1.5% | 9.7% |
| 9 | Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.6%Pre-Libertadores: 12.0%Sulamericana: 57.4%Releg: 4.2% | 5.6% |
| 10 | Corinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 4.5%Pre-Libertadores: 11.4%Sulamericana: 60.3%Releg: 3.4% | 4.5% |
| 11 |  Coritiba#10Libertadores: 3.2%Pre-Libertadores: 8.7%Sulamericana: 57.8%Releg: 4.9% | 3.2% |
| 12 |  Vitória#12Libertadores: 1.0%Pre-Libertadores: 3.7%Sulamericana: 42.2%Releg: 14.4% | 1.0% |
| 13 |  São Paulo#13Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 38.2%Releg: 18.1% | 0.8% |
| 14 |  Mirassol#14Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 2.1%Sulamericana: 31.5%Releg: 24.1% | 0.5% |
| 15 |  Santos#16Libertadores: 0.3%Pre-Libertadores: 1.3%Sulamericana: 24.4%Releg: 32.2% | 0.3% |
| 16 |  Grêmio#15Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.2%Sulamericana: 24.0%Releg: 33.2% | 0.2% |
| 17 |  Internacional#17Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.5%Sulamericana: 15.2%Releg: 46.3% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Libertadores qualification phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruzeiro#5Win: 1.4%Libertadores: 34.2%Pre-Libertadores: 29.6%Sulamericana: 34.5%Releg: 0.1% | 29.6% |
| 2 | Fluminense#4Win: 2.8%Libertadores: 50.8%Pre-Libertadores: 27.2%Sulamericana: 21.3% | 27.2% |
| 3 | Bahia#6Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Pre-Libertadores: 25.2%Sulamericana: 50.2%Releg: 0.3% | 25.2% |
| 4 | Bragantino#7Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Pre-Libertadores: 24.7%Sulamericana: 50.0%Releg: 0.4% | 24.7% |
| 5 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 6.3%Libertadores: 64.8%Pre-Libertadores: 21.5%Sulamericana: 13.5% | 21.5% |
| 6 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 9.7%Pre-Libertadores: 17.6%Sulamericana: 57.9%Releg: 1.5% | 17.6% |
| 7 | Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.6%Pre-Libertadores: 12.0%Sulamericana: 57.4%Releg: 4.2% | 12.0% |
| 8 | Corinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 4.5%Pre-Libertadores: 11.4%Sulamericana: 60.3%Releg: 3.4% | 11.4% |
| 9 | Flamengo#2Win: 22.2%Libertadores: 88.4%Pre-Libertadores: 8.8%Sulamericana: 2.8% | 8.8% |
| 10 | Coritiba#10Libertadores: 3.2%Pre-Libertadores: 8.7%Sulamericana: 57.8%Releg: 4.9% | 8.7% |
| 11 | Vitória#12Libertadores: 1.0%Pre-Libertadores: 3.7%Sulamericana: 42.2%Releg: 14.4% | 3.7% |
| 12 | São Paulo#13Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 38.2%Releg: 18.1% | 3.0% |
| 13 | Mirassol#14Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 2.1%Sulamericana: 31.5%Releg: 24.1% | 2.1% |
| 14 | Santos#16Libertadores: 0.3%Pre-Libertadores: 1.3%Sulamericana: 24.4%Releg: 32.2% | 1.3% |
| 15 | Palmeiras#1Win: 65.9%Libertadores: 98.7%Pre-Libertadores: 1.2%Sulamericana: 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 16 | Grêmio#15Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.2%Sulamericana: 24.0%Releg: 33.2% | 1.2% |
| 17 | Internacional#17Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.5%Sulamericana: 15.2%Releg: 46.3% | 0.5% |
| 18 |  Vasco#19Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 10.2%Releg: 58.6% | 0.3% |
| 19 |  Remo#18Pre-Libertadores: 0.2%Sulamericana: 8.2%Releg: 61.9% | 0.2% |
Probability of access to Copa Sulamericana
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 4.5%Pre-Libertadores: 11.4%Sulamericana: 60.3%Releg: 3.4% | 60.3% |
| 2 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 9.7%Pre-Libertadores: 17.6%Sulamericana: 57.9%Releg: 1.5% | 57.9% |
| 3 | Coritiba#10Libertadores: 3.2%Pre-Libertadores: 8.7%Sulamericana: 57.8%Releg: 4.9% | 57.8% |
| 4 | Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.6%Pre-Libertadores: 12.0%Sulamericana: 57.4%Releg: 4.2% | 57.4% |
| 5 | Bahia#6Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Pre-Libertadores: 25.2%Sulamericana: 50.2%Releg: 0.3% | 50.2% |
| 6 | Bragantino#7Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Pre-Libertadores: 24.7%Sulamericana: 50.0%Releg: 0.4% | 50.0% |
| 7 | Vitória#12Libertadores: 1.0%Pre-Libertadores: 3.7%Sulamericana: 42.2%Releg: 14.4% | 42.2% |
| 8 | São Paulo#13Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 38.2%Releg: 18.1% | 38.2% |
| 9 | Cruzeiro#5Win: 1.4%Libertadores: 34.2%Pre-Libertadores: 29.6%Sulamericana: 34.5%Releg: 0.1% | 34.5% |
| 10 | Mirassol#14Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 2.1%Sulamericana: 31.5%Releg: 24.1% | 31.5% |
| 11 | Santos#16Libertadores: 0.3%Pre-Libertadores: 1.3%Sulamericana: 24.4%Releg: 32.2% | 24.4% |
| 12 | Grêmio#15Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.2%Sulamericana: 24.0%Releg: 33.2% | 24.0% |
| 13 | Fluminense#4Win: 2.8%Libertadores: 50.8%Pre-Libertadores: 27.2%Sulamericana: 21.3% | 21.3% |
| 14 | Internacional#17Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.5%Sulamericana: 15.2%Releg: 46.3% | 15.2% |
| 15 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 6.3%Libertadores: 64.8%Pre-Libertadores: 21.5%Sulamericana: 13.5% | 13.5% |
| 16 | Vasco#19Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 10.2%Releg: 58.6% | 10.2% |
| 17 | Remo#18Pre-Libertadores: 0.2%Sulamericana: 8.2%Releg: 61.9% | 8.2% |
| 18 | Flamengo#2Win: 22.2%Libertadores: 88.4%Pre-Libertadores: 8.8%Sulamericana: 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 19 |  Chapecoense#20Sulamericana: 0.3%Releg: 96.4% | 0.3% |
| 20 | Palmeiras#1Win: 65.9%Libertadores: 98.7%Pre-Libertadores: 1.2%Sulamericana: 0.1% | 0.1% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chapecoense#20Sulamericana: 0.3%Releg: 96.4% | 96.4% |
| 2 | Remo#18Pre-Libertadores: 0.2%Sulamericana: 8.2%Releg: 61.9% | 61.9% |
| 3 | Vasco#19Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 10.2%Releg: 58.6% | 58.6% |
| 4 | Internacional#17Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.5%Sulamericana: 15.2%Releg: 46.3% | 46.3% |
| 5 | Grêmio#15Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.2%Sulamericana: 24.0%Releg: 33.2% | 33.2% |
| 6 | Santos#16Libertadores: 0.3%Pre-Libertadores: 1.3%Sulamericana: 24.4%Releg: 32.2% | 32.2% |
| 7 | Mirassol#14Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 2.1%Sulamericana: 31.5%Releg: 24.1% | 24.1% |
| 8 | São Paulo#13Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 38.2%Releg: 18.1% | 18.1% |
| 9 | Vitória#12Libertadores: 1.0%Pre-Libertadores: 3.7%Sulamericana: 42.2%Releg: 14.4% | 14.4% |
| 10 | Coritiba#10Libertadores: 3.2%Pre-Libertadores: 8.7%Sulamericana: 57.8%Releg: 4.9% | 4.9% |
| 11 | Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.6%Pre-Libertadores: 12.0%Sulamericana: 57.4%Releg: 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 12 | Corinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 4.5%Pre-Libertadores: 11.4%Sulamericana: 60.3%Releg: 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 13 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 9.7%Pre-Libertadores: 17.6%Sulamericana: 57.9%Releg: 1.5% | 1.5% |
| 14 | Bragantino#7Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Pre-Libertadores: 24.7%Sulamericana: 50.0%Releg: 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 15 | Bahia#6Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Pre-Libertadores: 25.2%Sulamericana: 50.2%Releg: 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 16 | Cruzeiro#5Win: 1.4%Libertadores: 34.2%Pre-Libertadores: 29.6%Sulamericana: 34.5%Releg: 0.1% | 0.1% |
Round 24 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Lib | LQ | Sul | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Palmeiras#1Win: 65.9%Libertadores: 98.7%Pre-Libertadores: 1.2%Sulamericana: 0.1% | 24 | 51 | 66% | 99% | 1% | 0% | — |
2 | Flamengo#2Win: 22.2%Libertadores: 88.4%Pre-Libertadores: 8.8%Sulamericana: 2.8% | 23 | 45 | 22% | 88% | 9% | 3% | — |
3 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 6.3%Libertadores: 64.8%Pre-Libertadores: 21.5%Sulamericana: 13.5% | 23 | 41 | 6% | 65% | 22% | 14% | — |
4 | Fluminense#4Win: 2.8%Libertadores: 50.8%Pre-Libertadores: 27.2%Sulamericana: 21.3% | 24 | 41 | 3% | 51% | 27% | 21% | — |
5 | Cruzeiro#5Win: 1.4%Libertadores: 34.2%Pre-Libertadores: 29.6%Sulamericana: 34.5%Releg: 0.1% | 24 | 39 | 1% | 34% | 30% | 35% | 0% |
6 | Bahia#6Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Pre-Libertadores: 25.2%Sulamericana: 50.2%Releg: 0.3% | 24 | 37 | 1% | 19% | 25% | 50% | 0% |
7 | Bragantino#7Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Pre-Libertadores: 24.7%Sulamericana: 50.0%Releg: 0.4% | 23 | 35 | 1% | 19% | 25% | 50% | 0% |
8 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 9.7%Pre-Libertadores: 17.6%Sulamericana: 57.9%Releg: 1.5% | 23 | 33 | 0% | 10% | 18% | 58% | 2% |
9 | Corinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 4.5%Pre-Libertadores: 11.4%Sulamericana: 60.3%Releg: 3.4% | 24 | 33 | 0% | 5% | 11% | 60% | 3% |
10 | Coritiba#10Libertadores: 3.2%Pre-Libertadores: 8.7%Sulamericana: 57.8%Releg: 4.9% | 24 | 32 | — | 3% | 9% | 58% | 5% |
11 | Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.6%Pre-Libertadores: 12.0%Sulamericana: 57.4%Releg: 4.2% | 22 | 30 | 0% | 6% | 12% | 57% | 4% |
12 | Vitória#12Libertadores: 1.0%Pre-Libertadores: 3.7%Sulamericana: 42.2%Releg: 14.4% | 24 | 29 | — | 1% | 4% | 42% | 14% |
13 | São Paulo#13Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 38.2%Releg: 18.1% | 23 | 27 | — | 1% | 3% | 38% | 18% |
14↑3 | Mirassol#14Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 2.1%Sulamericana: 31.5%Releg: 24.1% | 23 | 26 | — | 1% | 2% | 32% | 24% |
15↓1 | Grêmio#15Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.2%Sulamericana: 24.0%Releg: 33.2% | 23 | 25 | — | 0% | 1% | 24% | 33% |
16↓1 | Santos#16Libertadores: 0.3%Pre-Libertadores: 1.3%Sulamericana: 24.4%Releg: 32.2% | 23 | 25 | — | 0% | 1% | 24% | 32% |
17↓1 | Internacional#17Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.5%Sulamericana: 15.2%Releg: 46.3% | 24 | 25 | — | 0% | 1% | 15% | 46% |
18 | Remo#18Pre-Libertadores: 0.2%Sulamericana: 8.2%Releg: 61.9% | 24 | 23 | — | — | 0% | 8% | 62% |
19 | Vasco#19Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 10.2%Releg: 58.6% | 23 | 22 | — | — | 0% | 10% | 59% |
20 | Chapecoense#20Sulamericana: 0.3%Releg: 96.4% | 23 | 14 | — | — | — | 0% | 96% |
WinLibertadoresPre-LibertadoresSulamericanaReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Chapecoense#20Copa Sulamericana: 0.3%Relegation: 96.4%1-0São Paulo#13Libertadores: 0.8%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 38.2%Relegation: 18.1%
1-0São Paulo#13Libertadores: 0.8%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 38.2%Relegation: 18.1%Coritiba#10Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 8.7%Copa Sulamericana: 57.8%Relegation: 4.9%1-0Corinthians#9Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 4.5%Libertadores Qualification: 11.4%Copa Sulamericana: 60.3%Relegation: 3.4%
1-0Corinthians#9Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 4.5%Libertadores Qualification: 11.4%Copa Sulamericana: 60.3%Relegation: 3.4%Botafogo#11Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.6%Libertadores Qualification: 12.0%Copa Sulamericana: 57.4%Relegation: 4.2%11:00 PMAthletico-PR#3Winner: 6.3%Libertadores: 64.8%Libertadores Qualification: 21.5%Copa Sulamericana: 13.5%
11:00 PMAthletico-PR#3Winner: 6.3%Libertadores: 64.8%Libertadores Qualification: 21.5%Copa Sulamericana: 13.5%55%
20%
Atlético-MG#8Winner: 0.2%Libertadores: 9.7%Libertadores Qualification: 17.6%Copa Sulamericana: 57.9%Relegation: 1.5%9:30 PMVitória#12Libertadores: 1.0%Libertadores Qualification: 3.7%Copa Sulamericana: 42.2%Relegation: 14.4%
9:30 PMVitória#12Libertadores: 1.0%Libertadores Qualification: 3.7%Copa Sulamericana: 42.2%Relegation: 14.4%39%
31%
São Paulo#13Libertadores: 0.8%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 38.2%Relegation: 18.1%11:00 PMBragantino#7Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Libertadores Qualification: 24.7%Copa Sulamericana: 50.0%Relegation: 0.4%
11:00 PMBragantino#7Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 18.6%Libertadores Qualification: 24.7%Copa Sulamericana: 50.0%Relegation: 0.4%66%
13%
Vasco#19Libertadores Qualification: 0.3%Copa Sulamericana: 10.2%Relegation: 58.6%12:20 AMCruzeiro#5Winner: 1.4%Libertadores: 34.2%Libertadores Qualification: 29.6%Copa Sulamericana: 34.5%Relegation: 0.1%
12:20 AMCruzeiro#5Winner: 1.4%Libertadores: 34.2%Libertadores Qualification: 29.6%Copa Sulamericana: 34.5%Relegation: 0.1%48%
24%
Athletico-PR#3Winner: 6.3%Libertadores: 64.8%Libertadores Qualification: 21.5%Copa Sulamericana: 13.5%2:00 PMFluminense#4Winner: 2.8%Libertadores: 50.8%Libertadores Qualification: 27.2%Copa Sulamericana: 21.3%
2:00 PMFluminense#4Winner: 2.8%Libertadores: 50.8%Libertadores Qualification: 27.2%Copa Sulamericana: 21.3%75%
8%
Flamengo#2Winner: 22.2%Libertadores: 88.4%Libertadores Qualification: 8.8%Copa Sulamericana: 2.8%7:00 PMBotafogo#11Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.6%Libertadores Qualification: 12.0%Copa Sulamericana: 57.4%Relegation: 4.2%
7:00 PMBotafogo#11Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.6%Libertadores Qualification: 12.0%Copa Sulamericana: 57.4%Relegation: 4.2%90%
2%
Corinthians#9Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 4.5%Libertadores Qualification: 11.4%Copa Sulamericana: 60.3%Relegation: 3.4%7:00 PMSantos#16Libertadores: 0.3%Libertadores Qualification: 1.3%Copa Sulamericana: 24.4%Relegation: 32.2%
7:00 PMSantos#16Libertadores: 0.3%Libertadores Qualification: 1.3%Copa Sulamericana: 24.4%Relegation: 32.2%54%
16%
After Round 24: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↑Palmeiras's Win probability climbed from 37.6% to 65.9% (+28.3%).
- ↓Flamengo's Win probability dropped from 49.3% to 22.2% (-27.1%).
- ↑Coritiba's Sulamericana probability climbed from 30.7% to 57.8% (+27.1%).
- ↓Mirassol's Releg probability dropped from 50.3% to 24.1% (-26.2%).
- ↓Athletico-PR's Libertadores probability dropped from 87% to 64.8% (-22.2%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Brasileirão 2026 — Season Outlook
Win:
Libertadores:
Pre-Libertadores:
Sulamericana:
Brasileirão 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileirão 2026?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Palmeiras currently have the highest title probability at 66%. With 14 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileirão 2026?
- Chapecoense currently faces the highest relegation risk at 96%, followed by Remo at 62%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileirão 2026 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileirão 2026 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
Past editions