EFL Championship Promotion Race 2026
EFL Championship 2025/26
Every EFL Championship team ranked by their live probability of automatic promotion — our supercomputer runs up to millions of simulations updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
Promotion Race — Live Probabilities
| # | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry City | 100.0% |
| 2 | Ipswich Town | 72.7% |
| 3 | Millwall | 16.6% |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7.3% |
| 5 | Southampton | 3.4% |
| 6 | Wrexham | 0.0% |
| 7 | Hull City | 0.0% |
| 8 | Derby County | 0.0% |
| 9 | Norwich City | 0.0% |
| 10 | Birmingham City | 0.0% |
| 11 | Swansea City | 0.0% |
| 12 | Preston North End | 0.0% |
| 13 | Bristol City | 0.0% |
| 14 | Queens Park Rangers | 0.0% |
| 15 | Sheffield United | 0.0% |
| 16 | Watford | 0.0% |
| 17 | Stoke City | 0.0% |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 0.0% |
| 19 | West Bromwich Albion | 0.0% |
| 20 | Charlton Athletic | 0.0% |
| 21 | Blackburn Rovers | 0.0% |
| 22 | Oxford United | 0.0% |
| 23 | Leicester City | 0.0% |
| 24 | Sheffield Wednesday | 0.0% |
Live — updated every 10 minutes during every matchRound 45
About This Race
The promotion race is decided by points, goal difference, and remaining fixtures — the model accounts for all three simultaneously.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out every remaining fixture and counts how often each team ends up in the promotion places. The percentages shown reflect those simulated outcomes, updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
View full EFL Championship 2025/26 table →
Full standings, match results, and all team probability charts.